They’re meltinggggg

Chris Anderson chronicles and calculates the meltdown of big media a few days ago:


* Box Office: down by 7% this year (tickets per capita have fallen every year since 2001).
* Newspapers: circulation, which peaked in 1987, is declining faster than ever and is down another 2.6% so far this year.
* Music: Sales are down another 5.7% this year; although digital downloads (still just 6% of the business) are climbing nicely.
* Radio: down 4% this year alone, continuing a multi-decade decline.
* Books: down by 7% in 2004 (but see comments below for discussion)


* DVDs: sales growth is slowing dramatically, from 29% last year to single digits this year.
* TV: Total viewership is still rising, but as channels proliferate and the audience fragments the rating of the average show continues to decline.
* Magazines: Ad revenues are up a bit although the number of ad pages is flat (they’re charging more per page). Circulation is also flat, while newsstand sales are at an all-time low.
* Videogames: it’s the final few months of the current generation of consoles, which tends to the trough of the buying cycle. Sales were down 20% in Sept, but will probably pick up by Christmas with the launch of the Xbox 360.


* Internet advertising:
–Banners: Up 10% this year
–Keywords: Google revenues up 96%

  • You have stats for XFM and other alternative broadcast? Or through channel returns for DVD? Or Pod downloads? The question is really are consumers just saturated with media or are they switching types?

  • Chris put DVD sales in the wrong category there, I think.

    Hang on a second there, that isn’t a fall, it’s a dip in the 2nd derivative – if it grew 29% last year and ~ 10% this year, it’s still doing well. Notice also that the linked article mentions that studios have been shortening the wait between cinematic and DVD release. Think about the impact that has – it moves DVD sales earlier, thus giving an artificial short-term boost that will eventually even out.