Another desperate call for attention

Another desperate call for attention

: Frank Barnako makes another logical two-step in his effort to attack bloggers and get blog traffic. Whining about bloggers’ release of (meaningless, laughable) exit-poll data, he sniffs:

The problem some high-profile bloggers have now is they have proven to be untrustworthy. The brush paints a wide swath. Even Wonkette, aka Ana Marie Cox, said she hopes the experience “teaches people not to trust media in general.”

The concepts of reliability and accuracy have tested many bloggers. Wonkette has even joked about actually making a phone call to check a fact. Too bad a few bloggers, perhaps driven by ego and the desire to be noticed and linked by other Web loggers, didn’t do the same. Making these errors gives “old, big media” just another club to try to swat this vibrant, new new medium.

And just whom are they supposed to call? The errors in the exit polls weren’t the bloggers’. They were the pollsters’. The bloggers merely reported what they said — and gave the public credit for knowing how wrong pollsters always are. (By this rule, every time Matt Lauer swings to Al Roker, he ought to say, “Now here’s Al, who’s full of crap.”)

: Glenn Reynolds said the big-media spin is that bloggers are to blame for leaking the data.

I say bloggers should get credit for being open. Barnako replies:

“Bloggers were telling the public what they knew. Big media was not,” writes Jeff Jarvis in a posting at Buzzmachine.com. Taking an “information wants to be free” posture, Jarvis said if he still held the ethics of “old, big media,” he wouldn’t feel this way. But old, big media’s maturity prevented it from making a gaffe. They did not tell the public what they knew. They knew the polls were wrong.

Ha! They didn’t know the polls were wrong until the actual votes — and the GOP — told them. Here’s the moment when that happened: The Bush campaign told the networks — and then the bloggers — that the actual votes were coming in higher than the exit polls. And that wasn’t just spin. It was true.

20 responses to “Another desperate call for attention”

  1. praktike Avatar

    Huh?
    Isn’t the problem simply that early exit polls are generally not to be trusted, because their samples don’t necessarily reflect the voting public as a whole?

  2. Tom Avatar

    The exit polls are bogus, and because they didn’t work out, then the bloggers “blew it?” What a joke. If you want to criticize bloggers for happening to be the channel that released the data, which mostly comes from MEDIA MEMBERS who “tell their friends,” then go ahead. But they didn’t fudge the numbers. And start blaming National Review, Drudge, and more than just Wonkette and other bloggers. Sheesh. It’s so funny that this criticism is all based on the fact that the polls were wrong.

  3. Lee Avatar

    Take your pick on right or wrong. The exits were up to 10% “off” the actual vote; they are not intended as a predictor of the winner.
    “In the end, the exit polls were not wrong; only their initial interpretations were off base, Rapoport said.”
    ‘I think the important thing about exit polls is that they show why people won and the dynamics of the race,’ he pointed out. ‘The mistake most people make is they see polls as a horserace when they are actually an explanation of what happened. The polls may have been wrong about who won, but they were right about explaining why people voted the way they did.’”
    http://www.wm.edu/news/index.php?id=4027

  4. Tom O. Avatar

    Quote from http://www.electoral-vote.com:
    Various people sent me mail saying that it is awfully fishy that the exit polls and final results were substantially different in some places. I hope someone will follow this up and actually do a careful analysis. Does anyone know of a Website containing all the exit poll data? If we go to computerized voting without a paper trail and the machines can be set up to cheat, that is the end of our democracy. Switching 5 votes per machine is probably all it would take to throw an election and nobody would ever see it unless someone compares the computer totals and exit polls. I am still very concerned about the remark of Walden O’Dell a Republican fund raiser and CEO of Diebold, which makes voting machines saying he would deliver Ohio for President Bush. Someone (not me) should look into this carefully. The major newspapers actually recounted all the votes in Florida last time. Maybe this year’s project should be looking at the exit polls. If there are descrepancies between the exit polls and the final results in touch-screen counties but not in paper-ballot counties, that would be a signal. At the very least it could be a good masters thesis for a political science student.

  5. Rick Avatar

    Waiting for some brave whistle-blower computer geek employed by Diebold to come forward anonymously and let the truth be known… 11 Diebold stations used in Ohio were pre-populated with as many as 55,000 Bush votes apeice before 11/2. Come on, be brave… do the right thing and you’ll go down in history as the next “Deep Throat.”

  6. Scott Brodeur Avatar

    “Now here’s Al who’s full of crap.” That is one of the funnier things I have read this week.

  7. Jesse Avatar

    “In the hands of a blogger like Matt Drudge, the results are gold”
    I don’t know if I necessarily agree with that. I’m relatively new to Drudge, who exactly is he and how does he always seem to get his hands on juicy headlines before any of the major networks?

  8. Dishman Avatar

    Drudge is the .. protoblogger?.. who broke the Lewinsky scandal. His drudgereport.com site currently nets several million dollars a year on 2-3 billion hits/year.

  9. dr.cookie Avatar

    Here’s what was wrong with the exit polls that were released (leaked?) early:
    The sample was overwhelmingly women. The sample was overwhelmingly people who had time to talk to a survey researcher. That favors small subsets of the voting population, which means the sample was biased in its raw form.
    The raw results leaked to Drudge etc. was not properly weighted to reflect the pool of likely voters. So of course the results were off.
    How does a pollster make sure the results reflect the general population of voters? By asking demographic questions, and then weighting the results by respondent depending on the respondent’s background.
    Here’s what we need to know from the exit polls:
    Where were they taken? Are the locations representative of the nation as a whole, or were the locations supposed be just a sample of the battleground states?
    What was the meaning of the “moral values” alternative? Did the surveyor offer any explanation to respondents who may have asked what that meant?>
    How did analysts ensure that the polls reflect the population of voters? Or, did they decide upfront to only reflect the population of battleground state voters?
    I wonder why news organizations need exit poll results on the day of the election. Can’t they wait for results until the polls close? Where did the leaked results come from? Media outlets, or from the pollsters?
    As a statistician of sorts, I can see lots of problems with how this thing got done. It was better than 2000, but there are bugs in it still. Actually, what there is a problem of intent to use the data. What’s the data for, and why, and when does it get released? and who analyzes the raw data and makes sure it reflects a real population?
    I think bloggers should report whatever they get. And all of it. I love it. I think statisticians contracted by MSM should be a lot more careful with the data.

  10. erg Avatar

    The problem was not with the exit polls which when ‘adjusted’ (whatever that means), looked pretty accurate. The problem was that the early exit polls were not validating their data or doing end of day comparison with precinct data. The polls were not wrong, they just game the wrong impression to non-experts, and bloggers contributed to that.
    Incidentally, I wonder if Kerry supporters would be so generally upset if it hadn’t been for the exit poll data. That gave false hope to the campaign, and later dashing it made them feel worse. The same happened in 2000, incidentally. No doubt Bush supporters would feel the same if the numbers were reversed.

  11. Kat Avatar

    Not all bloggers fell for the exit polls–those who did wanted them to be true. Both bloggers and media are guilty of pushing polls they wanted to be true. When CBS started, Dan Rather was literally salivating with glee–as the nite wore on, he turned ashen gray. Charles Johnson on LGF said Wonkette and kos were full of shit. He was right.
    Charles at LGF:
    11/2/2004: Imaginary Numbers
    By the way, people, as far as I know at this point, there are no valid exit polls in existence. The numbers appearing at Daily Kos and Wonkette are sheer fantasy.

  12. erg Avatar

    Well, in that case, its interesting that Fox news was making encouraging comments about Kerry’s lead early. A lot of real media types were taken in, and this was not merely because of ideology — it was because they didn’t have much experience with the data.
    LGF was wrong, incidentally, there were valid exit polls by the end of the day, its just that they weren’t completely accurate initially. But the error for the released polls were not that bad by 6 pm or so, within MoE

  13. tony Avatar

    who do the big media think they are criticising anyone when they (and the big-time bloggers) missed the fact that the moral majority were making a huge comeback.
    thats the story of this election. not blogging, not wmd, not iraq. it’s the return of the church influencing what happens to the state.
    … but i guess it’s easier to pick on wonkette for being snarky

  14. Tim Oren Avatar

    You don’t suppose, given the high level of respect that the public had for both the MSM and pollsters going into 11/2, that they took upon themselves to retaliate a little? Whither sampling when the subjects may be deliberately blowing you off?

  15. Lee Avatar

    Tony, the mistake you make is both historical and actual. Regligion– the temple, the church, the mosque, the shul, the meeting house– has long influenced the state, for better and/or for worse.
    I’m a social liberal, a Kerry voter, and I go to Church more than once per week. I believe in God, and I respect your civil liberties to do so or not, to belong to a community of faith or not. . . I agree with the Pres. when he says this, as he did today. I worry about calls within the party to move to hard social right, however.
    The issue is not influence; the issue is whether a particular set of religious beliefs should be enshrined in civil law and thus enforced by the state. I beleive there is ample scriptural basis for concern about the confusion of God Almighty and the head of state, the will of God and the will of the people. I beleive there is greater basis in our Constitution for freedom of religion, as, after all, the authors spelled it out.
    My social views are influenced by my religious views, and I also beleive in the separation of church and state– for the sake of the state and the church.
    Democrats ought to be wary of being so cavalier about what you call “the church.”

  16. Jim S Avatar

    I was flipping channels Wednesday morning and saw three bloggers including Wonkette and the man who runs Powerlines. I know that some reading this statement will swear by every word that the Swift Boat Vets said but I think that independent sources like factcheck.org have taken care of that for the open-minded. No, that’s not a digression. The guy from Powerlines said that one of the best things that the blogs did was to provide them a forum when they didn’t have the big bucks to buy air time. If that’s the legacy of bloggers and their future I think we can live without it.

  17. tony Avatar

    lee,
    it sounds like you and i share some similar views and actions. in fact im a born-again and ordained (as well as being cavalier in much of my speech – for better or worse). my thinking is more along the lines that the gay marriage ban passed everywhere that it was proposed and the president was re-elected despite his pisspoor record and probably because of his stance on abortion which typically pleases the church-going conservatives, who, most are saying post-election came out in droves.
    but i could be wrong, im just a blogger.

  18. krucoff Avatar

    Does anyone else wince or scratch their head when they read comments how early exit poll data was inaccurate but they got it right by the end of the day? Like when there were actual numbers to report from precincts?? Wow, imagine that. Clearly samples early in the day are not reliable for whatever factors underlie specific time-of-day voter behavior patterns and as the day creeps on obviously the sample becomes bigger (and more reliable) but by then we are getting the real numbers anyway. I have to agree with the good Dr. Cookie and I just don’t see the point in releasing any exit poll data until Hawaii closes its last booth. Of course there’s value in the survey results when it comes to analyzing the attitudinal questions the next day but there is no reason for news organizations or bloggers to give hourly state-by-state candidate breakdowns based on exit polls other than to maintain some glued-to-the-screen traffic presence.
    But at the end of the day, quite literally, I also don’t think it’s really a big deal they posted bogus numbers since I’m sure not one vote was deterred by them showing up on Wonkette, Daily Kos or wherever. The audience of hardcore political blogs were going to vote no matter what. Those little birdie reports were pure election porn and we all know some of it just ain’t the real thing.

  19. Michael Avatar

    All this fuss about exit polls…what about polls in general? All polls have bias and error. There is sampling bias (people with published phone numbers), question bias (how a question if phrased, what question came before, etc), and structural bias in how the statistics are tabulated. Any faith in any poll is a leap.

  20. Michael Avatar

    Hmmm…the pledge banner is gone….