: Everybody’s wringing hands today over which poll is right and which is wrong and why as they all show widely different predictions for the fall. (See the WSJ’s Al Hunt here; free link.) There’s lots of talk about likely vs. registered voters and demographics and all that.
I have a much simpler theory for the disagreements:
Voters are gaming the pollsters.
Just as voters started taking pride in gaming exit polls, now I’ll be a high proportion plays with pollsters’ heads. It’s insurgent citizens’ media. But it’s just a guess — as good as any other guess.