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Guess

8 comments on Guess

Guess

: Everybody’s wringing hands today over which poll is right and which is wrong and why as they all show widely different predictions for the fall. (See the WSJ’s Al Hunt here; free link.) There’s lots of talk about likely vs. registered voters and demographics and all that.

I have a much simpler theory for the disagreements:

Voters are gaming the pollsters.

Just as voters started taking pride in gaming exit polls, now I’ll be a high proportion plays with pollsters’ heads. It’s insurgent citizens’ media. But it’s just a guess — as good as any other guess.

8 responses to “Guess”

  1. Mike G Avatar
    Mike G

    As someone who always answers newspaper site registration systems by saying I’m an Albanian woman born in 1909, I’m shocked at this.

  2. Shawn Levasseur Avatar
    Shawn Levasseur

    I think that in this age of telemarketing, I doubt that “Gaming the system” is pollsters big problem. I beleive that an increase in “no response” is one of the big problems.
    People fed up with telemarketing, lump pollsters in with them. Also, more and more people use answering machines and voice-mail to screen calls. Unpublished numbers, and cell phone use has also gone up, putting many people out of the pollsters reach.

  3. Seth Finkelstein Avatar
    Seth Finkelstein

    Per above, if people are gaming the pollsters, the pollsters would necessarily include corrections, counter-gaming – No?
    I think it’s just that “margin of error” is not a meaningless disclaimer. It really matters. I wonder how many headlines were the product of mere statistical noise.

  4. Tom Avatar
    Tom

    That’s why I focus on the betting markets at Iowa Electronic Markets and TradeSports.com. Money talks.

  5. Andy Avatar
    Andy

    Lying to reporters is not a crime.
    Lying to ANY govt official is a felony.
    BIG media has left its perch. It no longer is above the fray telling of events as they occur. They are active participants with interest in the outcome.
    The “story-is-true-even-if-evidence-is-false” line taken by CBS combined with the corruption disclosures at our print houses demonstrate that there is an “emotional truth” mentality at work.
    Lying, un-truthfulness, falsehood, distortion, deception, misleading, hiding, shading, and bending have become common place. The issues of truth, trust and burden of proof are no longer important in BIG Media. Every new revelation simply proves that the 4th Estate is corrupt.
    Blogs aka Little Media, are fighting to prove their trustworthiness. The Little Media is evolving as an important source for information and analysis because BIG Media is corrupt. Little Media comes with less authority and a demonstrated desire to correct, immediately, what is may be wrong.
    The Internet-as-Great-Disrupter is once again proving that the Established-Entrenched market dominant forces are losing because they cannot, do not, will not respond to the customer.
    BIG Media is losing out to Little Media because they have lost contact with their market base. They no longer serve a commercial need. Other sources provide better, faster, cheaper satisfaction.
    This is not new. It is only new to this industry. Competition arises when the market is dissatisfied. The Established tries to compete by controlling the customer and disparaging the competition. Several large Established companies vanish. The remaining large Established undergo rapid re-organization. New Entrants pick lots of low hanging fruit as disatisfied customers seek new providers. Even satisfied customers begin to examine assumptions.
    Can’t happen here?
    The only thing stopping change is access to marketplace. What do Viacom, Disney and General Electric have in common?

  6. Ruth Avatar
    Ruth

    Mr. Newport at Gallup has stated that he no longer really depends on polls, as most people don’t answer their phones, who are the polls polling? Mostly out of touch and fringe people who answer the phone, hoping for some kind of real contact.
    Some of the polls I answered when long ago I actually answered my phone were of the variety that asks ‘are you aware that Bill Clinton has beaten his daughter repeatedly?’ or close enough.
    Recall s’il vous plais that John Kerry was a cipher prior to actual voting in the Democratic primary?

  7. Karl Avatar
    Karl

    Although there are a number of interesting debates among pollsters and political scientists regarding “likely voter” screening, sample weighting and the like, there are at least three fairly simple factors that largely explain the divergent poll results published this week:

    First, polls do not have a 100% confidence level; a certain number will be “outliers” and give an inaccurate picture of public opinion. Second, the so-called “second wave” Pew poll was taken over a weekend. I was taught in college that such polls tend to skew Democratic; this stuck with me because it seemed counter-intuitive that Democarts are home on Saturday nights. A little Googling also turned up an article by Larry Kudlow quoting Ed Goeas to this effect during the last election cycle. Moreover, Rasmussen recently removed a Saturday from his tracking poll precisely because the results were so wacky as to not be believed.

    It’s factors like these that cause the pros to advise looking at a range of the polls (and there is no lack of them) to draw the right conclusion. In this case, the guys at RealClearPolitics have it about right, as the 5 to 6 point average lead for Bush is consistent with the results of the recent state polls.

    You may still consider that to be a “guess,” but rememeber that polling is more of an art and less of a science than most realize.

  8. Karl Avatar
    Karl

    Corrections: “Democrats” and “remember,” and whichever other typos arose when I pushed “post” too soon by accident.