The media pundit's pundit. Written by NYC insider Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine covers news, media, journalism, and politics.
Prediction thread: Place your bets
: OK, who do you think will win — by how much, in which states….?
Will it be decisive? Will it go to the Supreme Court again? Will it go to Congress?
I don’t care who you care about. I only want to see predictions, whether you like them or not. For history….
Bush with anywhere from 310 to 344 electoral votes.
Kerry will win decisively. Young people have not been polled. New voters have not been polled. This is a historic election. We all want the liars out of the White House so we are no longer embarrassed that this group of criminals is running our country.
Kerry wins. EC vote of just over 270 necessary min. Bush possibly wins pop vote because of voter suppression—but not likely. Litigation ensues in any event. Lovely.
No Supreme Court rerun. No terrorism. One big great boring election … sort of … with phenomenal turnout and as per above, women and young voters back Kerry for a decisive Kerry/Edwards win.
Far more interesting — the Cabinet they pull together. It will replace a number of the grey hairs with very young leaders and might even be bi-partisan.
Bush wins in a close one. Barbara, Derek, and Halley all move away. Hooray.
Bush wins, but not as close as 2000, say about 290 EVs. Democrats cry foul (disenfrachisement, racism, voter supression, and all that garbage) in all battleground states and propose endless lawsuits to challenge the results there.
The only thing I’m sure of is that there will be some really tired journalists and bloggers Wednesday.
On the election, Bush wins a suprise state (maybe NJ, even though the polls show him behind, it’s just one of those places that could go either way) and Florida while Kerry takes PA and maybe Ohio. Some small state, say Nevada decides the entire race. I have a feeling Bush may pull it off, but it’s going to be down to the wire either way.
On new voters, I just don’t buy it. I voted early here in Florida and have driven by a polling place a few times a week (near my favorite lunch place here) and haven’t seen some giant flow of new, young voters. The Dems did a better job than the Repbulicans in registering people who won’t vote.
The question is, who has more passion, the folks who love Bush or the folks who hate him?
More people vote for Kerry.
Bush wins.
Kerry, but not without some of the most bitter litigation — what’s going to happen after 11/2 will make the 2000 Florida debacle look like child’s play.
PS – Anyone seen a big box of absentee ballots? USPS mysteriously can’t find them. Just a handful, about 58,000 of them.
PPS – If any of the Repub-hired goon squads try to challenge me at the polls to keep me from voting they get knocked the f*ck out.
whoa, look out for the tough guy!
Bush – close but clear.
Too close to call but I will anyway: Bush wins.
In non-scientific, idle chatter sort of conversations with folks, I am finding that the ABB crowd is limited to people who ALWAYS vote for the Democrat. All the Unenrolleds that I know are quietly supportive of Bush – which is significant given that I live and work in MA.
Of course, it could be that the folks of MA know Senator Kerry all too well. And he certainly is going to take all the Electoral Votes in the State, but I predict that if Bush does reasonably well here he will win other States that are in the toss-up category.
Bush wins and the world does not end nor does the sky fall.
Bush – No landslide, but no *reasonable* doubt either.
And what will happen with all those Springsteen fans, er, uh, I mean – newly registered voters?
Nothing.
I see no reason[s] what so ever to alter
my prediction of Sep 30:
Bush 51%
Kerry 45%
Nader 4%
EV
Bush 322
Kerry 218
Damned if I know who’s going to win the election.
But…
The Pollsters may be made to look foolish, but they will spin ANY result as if it was “predictable” based on the polling.
Ratings for election night coverage will go through the roof. Fox News may be the big winner, but all networks will see an increase in viewers from 2000. (Unless its a blowout early in the night)
Normally I hate “horserace” coverage of elections. Except for on Election Night itself. And if nothing else, TV does Election Night well, even borrowing a few tricks from game shows for a bit of razzle dazzle.
The hoards of lawyers WILL be put to use. Even if the Presidential race doesn’t need them there inevitably be some close races that will be taken to courts.
Having said that, the Supreme Court will try to stay out of anything electoral. The lower courts will have to screw up royally before the Supreme Court even thinks of taking a case. If it does, it will not be a close decision when the ruling comes down.
Bush by a field goal, no overtime.
Saddens me to say this but Shrub will win…the surprises being he’ll take Michigan and NJ because both of those states have a large muslim population which has turned many dems into repubs.
Get ready for a war next year…when shrub has to appoint a supreme or two.
Bush by 4% in popular vote with 310 electoral votes.
New registrations, and currently-under-extrapolated undecideds/youth/minority votes hand Kerry 320 EC votes. Blowout staves off lots of litigation. The press spends a month scratching it’s head: “how could we have been so wrong?” BTW, are you watching http://www.electoral-vote.com? Extraordinary site by one manic mystery guy closing on a 700,000 impressions a day.
If the turnout is 110m then Bush wins; if it is 120m then Kerry wins.
If the Dow Jones Industrial Average closes on Tuesday night above 10,000 then Bush wins; below 10,000 Kerry wins.
Think of three major regions being in flux: the southwest (Ariz, NM, Colo, Nev); the upper midwest (Iowa, Minn, Wisc); and the industrial midwest (Pa, Ohio, Mich).
The southwest: because of Hispanic immigration, the declining influence of the libertarian wing of the Republican Party and the population shifts eastwards from Democratic-leaning California, this region is changing alignment from Republican to Democrat. The question is: will that transition occur in 2004 or 2008?
The upper midwest: the social-democratic tradition in this region was based in progressive Christianity, such as Lutherans as liberal Catholics. As the Democratic Party becomes more secular and the born-again wing of the Republican Party gains ascendancy, the tie between social policy and Christianity in this region dissolves. Faced with that choice, voters are voting their religious values, switching from Democratic to Republican.
The industrial midwest: deindustrialization makes the economy the key issue here and as a consequence the incumbent suffers. The key question in 2004 is whether Michigan is more like Ohio and Pa (and therefore for Kerry) or more like Wisc and Minn (and therefore for Bush).
The border states (La, Ark, Mo, Tenn, Ky, WV) are a fourth region that was crucial in the last two elections. Both Clinton and Gore come from this region. Winning there was key to Clinton’s victory in 1996 and losing there was key to Gore’s loss in 2000. Kerry appears to have failed to put this region back in play in 2004. Clinton will prove just how big a political star he is if he goes home this weekend and gets out the vote in the Delta.
Florida is big enough to count as a region all by itself. The result hinges on turnout: high helps Kerry; low helps Bush.
So here are our picks at The Tyndall Report.
How the ten battleground states will go:
For Bush: Iowa, Wisc, Minn, Nev
For Kerry: NH, Pa, Ohio, Fla, Mich, NM
If it is a surprisingly big win for Bush, it will be because he wins non-battleground states NJ, Hi.
If it is a surprisingly big win for Kerry, it will be because he wins non-battleground states WV, Ark, Mo, Colo, Ariz
Kerry 300 Electoral Votes. 50%-50% in the popular vote. Nader comes fourth, beaten by Libertarian Michael Badnarik.
“You know what they call a candidate who’s counting on a lot of new voters? A loser.” – James Carville
I give it to Bush with around 50% of the popular vote and upwards of 300 EVs (maybe slightly more). I see new voters splitting evenly (and Bush only has to get a third of them to stay even with Kerry), and I see a number of ‘moment-of-truth’ votes for Bush.
Bush wins 270-268. Popular vote 49%-49%. All states same as 4 years ago except that Kerry takes OH and NH, and Bush takes NM, IA, and (in a 3AM shocker) HI. Litigation for weeks afterwards.
Kerry by a landslide.
Even Frank Newport of Gallup Poll says you can’t rely on polls, no one these days answers their phones.
Virginia the surprise, just drive by and look at bumper stickers on cars in the Pentagon parking lots. The traditional military is sickened by what they’re seeing done to this country in the world, and its lack of defenses here at home
bush will win in a nailbiter.
Harmon 270, Paulsen 270. Harmon gets it because he’s still breathing.
Turnout will be between 55-60 percent. High, by historical standards, but nowhere near all registered voters will vote.
Popular vote breakdown: Bush 52%, Kerry 46%. Nader will get 0.5% — slightly less than the Libertarian candidate (whatshisname).
Electoral vote breakdown: At the end of the day, Bush will be ahead in 29 of the states he won in 2000, plus New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa and Pennsylvania. Kerry will be ahead in the remaining 16 states Gore won in 2000, plus New Hampshire. Total score, Bush 317, Kerry 221 (I think).
However, Bush’s margin in Ohio will be paper thin, and his lead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania will be less than the number of uncounted provisional votes. Kerry and the Dems will challenge the results in all three states hoping to create a 272-266 win. They will fail give up the challenge in the other two about four weeks later.
The Republican Party will pick up two senate seats (for a 53-47 Rep. edge in the Senate) and six house seats (for a 234-200) edge.
Who Does Bush Need ??
Well apparently only Republicans. I believe its been mentioned a few times in the past that his rallies are screened. Well, how many of you, independents and undecided folks, have ever been allowed in? Which begs the question, why in God name should we give our vote to George, the one who needs to have his rallies in sterile conditions, who is afraid to be booed or criticizes. He should be ousted just for his environment issues. With four hurricanes and one mountain on the cusp of possible eruption, I think even mother nature has had enough. As far as jobs are concerned, how many of you remember Ross Perot who I believe said that if Nafta was ratified, you would hear a big sucking sound of jobs leaving this country. Well, its
There will be a terrorist attack between now and the election, Bush will go to ground in his Virginia bunker and the polls will not be able to stay open. So Bush will stay on until he gets the country back into shape to vote.
Not funny?
Pray.
Bush Wins:
By 5% of the Popular Vote
Over 310 of the Electoral Vote
There you have it, said it here first.
Hey blueprint
The only clowns at the Pentagon with Hanoi skerry stickers on their cars are contractors. The traditional military types like me are voting for the only candidate worthy of the position of Commander In Chief, Mr. Bush. skerry has a yellow streak down his back and will take this country down the same path carter did. My prediction (getting back on topic), Mr. Bush, decisively. God Bless America, our troops, and Mr. Bush. SUPPORT OUR BRAVE WARRIORS FIGHTING FOR YOUR FREEDOM, VOTE REPUBLICAN.
Bush gets 207-290 Electoral Votes and wins (I would prefer Kerry), but it takes weeks for the victory to become official. This time there are five or six Floridas. The last legal challenges are snuffed out in December, mass protests ensue overseas, and the US electorate is just glad the whole thing ends.
Actually, the traditional military types I know are miserable at the disgrace that Bush has brought on them, and this country. As to Kerry bumper stickers, no, it isn’t politically expedient for members of the armed services to wear bumper stickers. They’re supposed, like the government employees, not to be politically involved, it’s called the Hatch Act. Hope Theresa isn’t letting whatever traditional military types she’s around know that she’s breaking the law??
Whoops! Correction: Bush gets 270-290 EVs. Need to be more careful hitting that pesky POST button.
72% turnout.
At least one state is mis-called by the networks.
Bush loses California 49-48.
Bush gets 54% of the popular vote, and 357 EV.
Bush, with maybe 300 EVs. There are a lof of people who viscerally do not like Bush, but I think there are also a lot of people who genuinely like the guy. You don’t hear too much about those people, but I think they will vote and be the reason Bush slightly outperforms this weekend’s polls.
Kerry. Not a problem. Over 300 EV’s. And by three or four in the popular vote.
I’ll add another…
Jeff Jarvis hears something on Howard Stern that sets him back a moment. After reflecting, he surprises himself and votes for Bush.
Bush 52%, Kerry 47% of the PV. Bush takes Florida and Ohio decisively; Kerry takes PA. As for the other borderline states, sheesh, anyone’s guess. Wildly cacophonous, yet ultimately low level litigation to follow, sputtering out within only a few weeks after the election.
Bush takes roughly 300 EVs, 50% of the vote. Kerry takes 45%. Lawsuits for the next month.
No terrorist attacks on American soil for the next four years. Two attempts reported thwarted, and are played down by the Dems as scaremongering.
Bloggers start big push for instant runoff voting by 2008. (A minority pushes for superior Condorcet method, but gets no traction due to “Condorcet” sounding too French.) IRV Amendment drafted somewhere in 2008-2012, passed by 2016. Dems quickly replaced by Green candidates; Reps replaced by Libertarians. US plays with isolationist stance for two years until backlash puts a sizable Globalist party faction in Congress.
Arafat passes away quietly in hospital bed before end of year. PLO power vacuum filled within six months. Israeli-Palestinian peace plan staggers to life again. Palestine recognized by Israel by 2008, though tensions continue for at least another decade.
FMA quietly buried by mid-November, or put up for sacrificial vote in the House (let’s say) and voted down roughly 220-210. Dead issue a month later. A couple hundred SS couples get married in blue states. Ben Affleck comes out, then goes back in again.
California ripped by enormous quake some time before 2008. The Heartland’s heart goes out. Bush declares War on Tectonics (just kidding). Damage estimated in the billions, of course, but CA pulls through, and papers talk of a “great healing”. Entertainment industry takes a beating in any case, as indie studios pop up in Vancouver, Austin, New York, Chicago, Denver, Toronto, London, and Bombay. Web entertainment gains more influence.
Education problem still stagnant. Ditto France.
Germany starts up a powerhouse hybrid and compact car industry, and becomes #1 or #2 power in the EU by 2015.
Iran gets nukes by 2006. The US employs containment policy once again. Cold War II begins, though much cooler since Iran has little ability to project force beyond its borders. By 2030, Iran mellows out as the student generation of 2000 begins taking over from the mullahs.
Iraq becomes largest oil market for US by 2015. Halliburton makes billions at first, but tapers off as other competitors start moving in, and hybrid cars, nuclear power, and nanotechnology put a dent in oil demand.
US starts leaning on Saudi Arabia to expand human rights. Tensions arise, fed by US-led sanctions.
Kenya, Namibia, and Tanzania industrialized in a big way by 2030. Congo and Sudan get nuclear ambitions, starting a whole new carnival of fun on that continent.
For next 50 years, GWB ranked near bottom of list of great presidents by learned historians, except for a minority who rank him near top. America suffers an economic crisis or two around 2030, due to many boomers still living thanks to medical breakthroughs, many based on stem cell research over past 30 years. Nation keeps trucking along.
For those of you who are so inclined, you can put your money where your fingers are. :)
Paul:
The first “L” on the Hollywood sign will be damaged beyond repair during the earthquake you predicted. The ACLU will then sue the City of Los Angeles, claiming the “Holywood” sign is an endorsement of religion. The City of Los Angeles will spend $500,000 to replace the sign with one that reads “Chomskyland”.
P.S. JJ’s Place is becoming more and more addictive for my daily chuckle quotient (DCQ). You Guys are (as they used to say somewhere – it was surely before my time) the bees’ knees.
My guess is that the undecideds break Jacksonian and Bush wins by a little more than polls suggest. He carries Florida and Ohio and New Mexico and Iowa and Maine and New Hampshire, and maybe another 1 or 2 moderate surprises like Michigan.
I don’t have a dog in this fight since I think both are of a quality that is nationally embarassing given the importance of the job. My interest is in measuring my perception of what I think will happen, which is based on the blogosphere, versus what really happens. If it happens as I’ve surmised, I’ll view the blogosphere as I know it as on target, as fairly representative of common sense among the informed and passionate.
But if it breaks the other way and Kerry surprises by winning Florida and maybe Ohio, New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico and even possibly Colorado, then I’ll take this to signify that the blogosphere as I know it is skewed hawkish. I already know this is somewhat true, the question is how true.
Bush 53%, 284 EV
Kerry 46%, 254 EV
Results are clear enough that Kerry concedes on Nov. 3.
Bush wins both popular vote and electoral.
50%-48.5% Popular
274-264 Electoral
Kerry will win for sure! Count on it.
How many people who voted for Gore in 2000 will vote for Bush? Not many, if any. How many people who voted for Nader or Bush in 2000 will vote for Kerry? At least some. Factor in the new voters, and Kerry wins.
What I don’t know is how contested the election results will be!
Bush wins!
Popular vote: 51.8-47.4
Electoral vote: 323-215
Kerry only wins: HI,CA,WA,OR,IL,ME,NH,VT,NY,
PA,NJ,MA,RI,CT,NJ,DE,MD,DC (18 states)
Bush: All the others
Kerry will win by a landslide, including my state of Arizona!
Kerry will win. He’ll win OH, PA and Florida. It will be a decisive win.
Popular vote: Bush 52%, Kerry 48%
Electoral vote: Bush 291, Kerry 247
Team America: World Police
Unofficial Predictions
Dicks (Bush): 291
Pussies (Kerry): 247
Battle Ground States:
Ohio – Bush by 5%
Iowa – Bush by 5%
Florida – Bush by 4%
Wisconsin: Bush by 3%
New Mexico – Kerry by 3%
Fun to watch:
Pennsylvania – Kerry
Kerry will win, but the swifties made a big media buy in the state that just started running on Wednesday. As the only 527 that seems able to actually change people’s minds, Kerry’s campaign will get scared and divert resources to keep the state safe.
Hawaii – Kerry
Since Hawaii hasn’t elected a republican Governor in 40 years, Governor Linda Lingle’s (R) denotes a change in attitude in this normally safe democratic state. Of course everyone’s nightmare scenario is if the electoral vote is so close the networks may have to wait until the polls close in Hawaii to predict a winner.
Flash – Osama bin Laden Tape Aired
As soon as I get done doing all my careful analysis, old farty pants makes an appearance and adds an unknowable to the whole election equation. Can’t see how this helps Kerry, but might help Bush. Bush is doing well among married women which is unusual for a Republican. The thinking goes married women are fearful for their children’s safety, and Bush is getting these votes that would normally go Democratic. Having Osama on the TV all weekend can only help to reinforce these fears.
ps. Someone has been posting under my old handle “Tom (American Voter)” Jeff, if you get a chance can you get this guy’s IP address for me?
Oh forgot my popular vote prediction:
Bush: 53%
Kerry: 46%
Whatishisname? 1%
Bush wins with 290-300 EV and 51-52% popular vote. On election night, Kerry claims victory, and lawsuits immediately ensue in all battleground states. Recounts will probably take place in half of them; the other half will tell the Dems to get stuffed. During the recounts, Dems will scream about “disenfranchisement” and also sling racist accustions; GOPers will scream about “rule of law” and “nation of laws” and “mockery of the political process”. 50-50 chance of the SCOTUS stepping in (again) to stop the shenanigans. If SCOTUS does, the Dems will have four more years of whining about the “President-Elect”. If SCOTUS doesn’t, the Dems will have four years of “the election was stolen due to racism”.
Guess that’s enough prognisticating.
BTW, I’d love to see Kerry just concede defeat on 11/2. But considering what the Dems have done up to this point, I just don’t believe he will.
P.S. Most people will be late to work Wednesday because they’ll have been up all night Tuesday watching results on Fox News and the web.
Young people win the vote…where it counts.
Busing them in around big liberal cities won’t do much besides help tip the popular numbers.
Vote or Die where it counts and Bush wins with max 300 EVs, hopefully a high enough number to prevent endless litigation.
Popular vote? no idea.
But Hawaii goes Bush, too.
Kerry 272
Bush 266
Bush wins the popular vote and so the two parties are even. Some right-wingers try to start a civil war to topple ‘Commrade Kerry’ and I’ll be glad that the whole campaign-massacre is over.
Bush 50%
Kerry 49%
Nader 1%
Kerry and Bush both claim victory. Endless legal crap. Expect a ton of voter fraud/voter disenfranchisement video/photos to make a huge splash post election, especially on blogger web sites. The press will use this and love the extended game, play up a lot of our country’s division.
During this time, a terrorist strike, when Bush is considered weaker (elected or not?)
Post-strike, Kerry armchair quarterbacks and critiques Bush while the press fawns over Kerry’s every word – which only heightens the national tension.
If this prediction is at all close to correct, then I expect the next two months to be the worst period in our collective memories.
But if it’s not close, then it’s Bush. Kerry will not win without a legal fight.
Oh, and the EV: 270 Bush, Kerry 268
Bush in landslide (whatever that is), gets Ohio, PA, MI, FLA, 320+ EV’s.
Final tally Bush 320, Kerry 218, MSM 0 (credibility, that is)
And no, I have no idea if my numbers add up.
A decisive, but not landslide, Bush win. Some predicted suprises – he’ll take Hawaii and will even pull out Ohio.
Jeff,
My prediction is that you will vote for Bush.
You will do so because when you walk into that voting booth and search your soul, you will realize that the path ahead diverges. One path is well worn. It is the path of “stability”, the status quo, and realpolitik. This is the path that brought 9/11.
The other path has never been travelled before. It is the path towards a liberal democracy in the heart of the Arab world. It is a path that could -just maybe – change this world for the better.
John Kerry doesn’t believe that we can help build a liberal democracy in the middle east. He will take the easy path and sell out any possibility of achieving this goal in a moment of realpolitik for an ephemeral gain.
George Bush believes that we can build a liberal democracy in the heart of the Arab world. He will take this difficult path because he believes that liberty is the God-given right of all mankind, including the Arab/Muslim world. The gain from success would be ever-lasting.
I don’t know if building a liberal democracy in the heart of the Arab world is a realistic possibility. What I do know is that if we don’t try right now, at this moment in time, it will never happen. We have to seize THIS chance because we won’t get another.
When you walk into that voting booth, you will vote to take that chance. You won’t forgive yourself if you don’t.
Two roads diverged in a yellow wood,
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;
Then took the other, as just as fair,
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that the passing there
Had worn them really about the same,
And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back.
I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I–
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.
Robert Frost
Serious BS. No one really believes the MBA who was supported by Dad’s friends, set up in business time and again and lost it all, and got set up again, whose family interests are all big oil and who can’t even go into an interview with the real victims of 9-11 without a ‘handler’ beside him is the poetic believer in democracy in the middle east. This is ludicrous. He gave Halliburton first dibs, which means they got the ‘high end of the hog’.
Try this quote:
The moving finger writes, and having writ moves on, nor all your promises nor ______ will draw it back to cancel half a word nor all your tears wash out a word of it.
Please anyone familiar with the Rubaiyat of Omar Khayam, fill in the blank.
The road less taken is that of reasonable and intelligent search for the best way to guide this country. Don’t give us a bunch of sound bites, give us sound considered policies.
If anyone didn’t get it, that means John Kerry.
A little off the subject, but adding up Kerry’s useless senate service of 20 years, giving him 4 years max in the military (because I don’t know the total time) which adds up to 24 years. He probably graduated from Yale in 4-5 years, did not go to grad school. He is 60 years old; so what in H*** has he done with the other 13 years? Can’t be all meditating or chasing rich women. This guy has a blank space big time in his resume and he calls GWB “the fortunate son”? How come no one has ever questioned this time??
Oops, forgot to forecast. Bush by 51-54% and 300+ EV. Won’t take my home state of Ohio because of the unions but will take Florida, MN, IA, NM, and maybe MI and NJ.
Golly gosh what did Kerry do with his years since he defended your country? aside from leading a movement which helped to get this country out of Vietnam (a classmate of mine is still permanently disabled, a classmate of my sister’s spent his whole life with a brain injury with his head leaning to one side)
HE SERVED IN THE SENATE and helped to put the USA in the best position it had ever been when the shrub took office and put it into the worst but what do you care … if the shrub keeps on at this rate the currency will be worthless and anyone will work for food. Won’t that be the American Dream.
Bush wins convincingly with 323 electoral votes and about 53% of the popular vote.
Kerry still declares himself the winner and takes it to the courts in several key states.
Bush landslide, 46 states. Ruth’s head explodes.
Sorry, Don, I lived through the last one, you can wish ill on all Sen. Kerry’s supporters, but they will survive. From ellengoodman@globe.com:
I have an entire Rolodex of reasons why I would not vote to keep this president in office. But none of them trumps my sense of danger at being led by a man who tailors the facts to fit the mind that is indeed set.
Ruth, us simpletons don’t quote Kipling, and don’t trust those of you who do. We can never figure out what Kerry means or stands for.
BC04 Bush 52%, Kerry 47%
DNC seethes
Kerry will win because there is not a majority of voters who want to continue his policies of aggression or economic devastation, and many of us have grandchildren to consider.
Kerry 55%, Nader 5.5%, Bush 39.5% if you don’t take into consideration those who don’t vote for anyone for the office at all.
Bush 51%
Kerry 48%
Nader no more than 1.2%.
Bush gets less than 300 electoral votes, loses Pennsylvania, wins Florida and Ohio.
My crystal ball is cloudy, though . . .
Bush wins decisively. He increases his vote total & percentage of African American, Catholic & Jewish voters. He uses these gains to win MN, IA, WI. He uses his credentials in fighting the war on terror to win OH, FL, NJ & HI.
Exit polling will tell the tale: Bush’s prosecution of the war on terror will have won the day & Kerry’s perceived weakness in that area (fostered in part by Richard Holbrooke’s assinine comment that the war on terror isn’t a real war) doom him. Also hurting him is the relatively low African American turnout. He just never connected with them.
Additional Predictions:
Thune beats Daschle, Coors keeps Senate seat in GOP hands after disastrous Kerry visit midweek that pulls Salazar down, GOP almost sweeps southeastern Senate seats, winning in the Carolinas, GA & FL. Dems pickup IL (shocking, I know) & force a December runoff in LA.
Bush wins NM, too.
Overall, Bush wins with 52%, Kerry finishes with 46 %.
Bush: 281 electoral votes
Kerry: 257
Bush – 52%
Kery – 47%
EV
Bush 290 or 294 if he snaps up NH
gets WI
sacrifices FL in an electoral head fake trapping hoards of Kerry lawyes in Broward County
Extra Credit
CO Amendment 36 and Ken Salazar – toast
The election won’t be close.
Bush will win close to 350 EV’s.
New Jersey, Penna, Mich, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, New Mexico, and Hawaii all flip and rejoin America as Bush states.
Kerry and Osama sound too much alike for this independent voter and Navy Reservist to ever consider voting to install Kerry as Commander in Chief. A dishonorably discharged war crimminal like Kerry has no place leading the US military.
Kerry wins election, Bush wins exit polls.
90% of registered voters have votes recorded, 70-80% of voters actually vote.
Or
Bush in a landslide of Reagan/Mondale proportions.
Hell, I’ll bite.
Ruth: what you are missing is ‘wit.’
The Rubayat is great. We should all sit down after the elections and read it.
“Drink! For you know not why you go, nor where!”
Predictions? Beats me . . . except that if Kerry wins, the regular media is absolutely, irrevocably screwed.
I know that Bush’s crowds are carefully screened, but despite that hassle they’re also huge, boisterous and passionate… far more excited than Kerry’s. Bush also seems to have a lot more volunteers rather than 527-hired temps trying to get out the vote.
On the basis of those crowds’ passion, I think it goes:
Bush 53%
Kerry: 44%
Nader: 1%
Bush carries Ohio, Florida and, in a shocker, Minnesota. Throw in Nevada and the like the EV looks something like:
Bush: 296
Kerry: 242
I have never been wrong when predicting an election! Of course I’ve never predicted an election before that wasn’t a dead nut certainty. And this one is certainly not certain.
I’m far more confident about this: Barack Obama slaughters Alan Keyes in Illinois.
I can now rest comfortably knowing that at least one of my predictions will be correct.
When Kerry won Iowa, my analysis was:
This guy’s got McGovern’s foreign policy record, Mondale’s economic policy, Dukakis’ regional base and Dole’s charisma. The Democrats can’t be stupid enough to nominate this guy, because if they do he’ll lose all 50 states.
Obviously I was wrong about the first part of the prediction, but I still stand by the second.
DC’s three electoral votes will prevent it from beinng a complete blowout.
Post-NFL, pre-election prediction: Since the Washington Redskins lost to Green Bay following a late penalty flag, that would seem to point to a last-minute Kerry squeaker.
Popular vote breaks down 50% Kerry, 48% Bush, 1% Nader, 1% Badnarik.
Electoral College: Kerry 298, Bush 240. If Colorado’s Amendment 36 passes, make that Kerry 294, Bush 244.
Big turnout tips scales to Kerry. Kerry also gets help from Yucca Mountain angst in Nevada, Colorado’s senate race and Ohio unions.
Bush wins Florida, thanks Jeb again.
Kerry has big early lead causing networks to call it before midnight, but overnight and days following make the outcome less certain in several states, with potential Bush lawsuits challenging Wisconsin, Minnesota and Ohio. Kerry may counter by challenging Florida.
Less realistic prediction? Colorado voters approve Amendment 36, and Nader gets 10% of that state’s popular vote, earning him an Electoral College vote and possibly preventing either Kerry or Bush from outright victory.
Thank you, Persnickety! It was such temptation, I thought it would be snatched up before.
Yes, we’re looking forward to the aftermath, after the math.
You did notice that the polls are beginning to show Kerry ahead now? And you will be hearing very shortly about the number of people who don’t have ‘land lines’ and those who do who don’t answer their phone.
Popular: Bush 49.3%, Kerry 48.6%, Nader 1.2%, Badnarik 0.75%, Other 0.15%
Electoral: Bush 284/285 (depending on the South Charleston, WV mayor), Kerry 253/254. Std. Dev. is such that Kerry is 40% to win.
Senate: Rep. +2 (gain GA AND SC AND FL or NC AND LA or SD; lose IL AND AK or CO)
House: Rep. +4 or +5
Follow-up to above as IN and KY polls close: AR, CO, FL, NV, OH, WV, WI to Repubs.; DE, HI, IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NJ, OR, PA to Dems.
So…how are egg facials progressing?…