‘Failures of imagination’

‘Failures of imagination’

: That key phrase of the 9/11 Commission‘s indictment of history keeps rolling around in my head like a bucket of loose nails. Failures of imagination.

What an absurd and hopeless charge it is. I finally realized that what this really says is that the commission could not come up with failures of fact that lead to the attacks. And so, instead, it trumped up this charge against both recent administrations and countless public servants: OK, they say, so it turns out you could not have known what these insane, evil, murdering religous fanatics would do to America but we say you should have imagined it — and then you should have protected us from this imagined act and because you did not stop this act you could have only imagined, you failed.

Not to be too flip about this, but such is the indictment every husband knows from every wife (or pick your familial relationship): You should have guessed what I wanted without my having to tell you. It is the perfect can’t-win vice grip.

And that is the position into which the 9/11 commission puts past — and now future — governments of this country. They set an absolutely unwinnable standard for victory in this war:

It’s not a war against terrorism, says the commission. OK, then what is it? It’s a war against Islamic fanatics, they say; you should go take out those fanatics, they urge. But beware drastic measures such as regime change. And don’t get too uppity and think about installing democracies amid hotbeds of tyranny. You should not invade Iraq and set up a democracy in the heart of the Middle East to set an example. Instead, they suggest, you should work through libraries. (And that is only a slightly unfair summary.) They demand decisiveness but, because they wanted to report to be unamimous, they bleached out all decisiveness from the report’s recommendations. Libraries! They could all get behind libraries. Invasion and regime change? Too controversial.

And then, when that doesn’t work and the next attack comes — the attack the commission vaguely warns will come so they can say we told you so — then they will accuse the administration — any administration — of not acting swiftly enough and strongly enough and with sufficient imagination.

It’s the can’t win conundrum. And it’s not terribly helpful.

Nonetheless, politicians and media commentators are falling over themselves to praise the unanimous report of the commission and urge immediate implementation of all its recommendations, whether decisive (and there are some) or namby-pamby (and there are many). Now I’m all for swift and decisive action against terrorism and Islamic extremism — all for it. But I do feel the need to urge just a moment to ask:

Did the 9/11 commission get it right?

Thank goodness, there are others asking that today. Willliam Safire in The Times frets:

With great fanfare, the 9/11 commission amplified that call for a super-spymaster. This rush to “reform” is stampeding otherwise sensible senators into writing a czarist bill to combine the spying techniques of secret surveillance with the law-enforcement power of the F.B.I., invading the unsuspected citizen’s privacy under the rubric of fighting terrorism.

With this fear-driven new groupthink spurred, booted and in the saddle, nobody at this convention stops to ask: Would John Kerry, if elected, be well served by a fixed-term, “cabinet level official” who does not serve, as other members of the cabinet do, “at the pleasure of the president”? What if, in some crisis about pre-emption, they disagreed – would the unelected official prevail? Who would really be in charge?

And suppose one person had budget authority over intelligence-gathering and evaluation as well as F.B.I. investigations – what would become of the rules of evidence that protect the innocent accused? What the czar wants, the czar gets – and one day he could just as easily be a John Ashcroft as a Lee Hamilton.

One looks in vain for a Democrat here in the Boston lovefest to break out of the groupthink enough to say: “Hold on. In the spirit of the 9/11 bestseller, let’s use our imagination to discern hidden dangers in unrestrained dot-connecting.” Won’t happen; in a time of fear, civil liberty butters no political parsnips.

And in the New York Post, Amir Taheri says this is a bureacratic solution because it is the product of bureaucratic thinking.

The commissioners have a politico-technocratic mindset. They are the products of a political culture that assumes that all problems have technical and bureaucratic solutions. Such solutions are standard: create a new layer of bureaucracy, and spend some more money. But that is certainly not going to put the fear of God in Osama bin Laden and his like.

The commission itself was a typical product of such a way of thinking. So it is not surprising that it came up with only two new proposals: one is to create a Cabinet post dealing with intelligence, a twin for the existing Homeland Security tsar. The other is a suggestion to spend money on improving the lives of disaffected youths in Arab and other Muslim countries. I am not kidding!

He goes on to say that, indeed, the Commission didn’t get it right.

The report assumes that there is a single, readily identifiable enemy. This is the routine way of political thinking, that took shape during the Cold War.

Anyone with knowledge of the Arab countries and the Muslim world in general would know that this is not the case.

The problem with the current War on Terror is that the democracies, and those Muslims who aspire for democracy, are faced with a multi-faceted threat that assumes numerous forms, from the burning of books to the cutting of throats….

The commission makes an even bigger mistake. By speaking of “political grievances” it tries to explain the Islamists within the parameters of classical logic. Having accused the administration of lack of imagination, the commission, is itself unable to imagine a conflict that is not political in the normal sense of the term.

Right. The commission says it’s not just about terrorism. It’s about Islamic extremism. But it’s more than that. It’s about democracy. It’s about modernity. It’s about civilization. But that’s going too far for a unanimous report. So it’s about libraries. Says Taheri:

The aims of the “enemy” in question, however, are not solely political.

He will not be happy even if, in the spirit of liberal generosity, you gave him half of your power and wealth. Nor would he settle for a total American withdrawal from the world. Nor would he be satisfied if you helped wipe Israel off the map.

This enemy’s conflict with the United States, and alongside it other democracies, not to mention those Muslims who also aspire after democracy, is not political but existential.

He wants to rule you because he thinks he is the holder of a “the highest form of truth.”

This enemy wants you, the whole world in fact, to convert to Islam because he believes the advent of Islam abrogated all other religions. Anyone who is not a Muslim is not a full human being.

And fighting that takes, well, imagination.

So, in the end, the real failure of imagination is not (just) past administration’s; the failure of imagination is the commission’s. The commission, in its unanimity, fails to adequately imagine the extent of the enemy and the means and weapons and resolve it will take to fight that enemy.

If we turn around and swiftly adopt this commission’s recommendations and think that we’re then safe, we have all suffered a failure of imagination.

22 responses to “‘Failures of imagination’”

  1. trump Avatar

    By the way Jeff, you should really answer this already (it’s from another thread, but it spiraled off on tangents, so here it is):
    Jeff, answer the question when you get a chance: Why are you – as a hawk on terror- voting for Kerry, given his dreadful selections of advisors in Berger and Wilson (who would most likely have held positions in Kerry’s govt in the event of election if they hadn’t been exposed)
    Jeff, please tell us why you feel Kerry would do a better job on Terror?

  2. jmh Avatar

    Jeff, the “failure of imagination” phrase is the solution to a really tough political problem: how to move the country forward effectively without getting bogged down in the kind of agenda-driven nitpicking the rest of your post betrays.
    And, in fact, it obliquely gets at what Charlie Peters at the Washington Monthly magazine decades ago identified as the true evil in our society: bureaucracy.
    The reason the bad guys will have the upper hand as long as we pursue your agenda (best described by Toby Ziegler on West Wing as “They’ll like us when we win.”) is that their agenda is driven by a pro-active belief system that brooks little dissent and replenishes–and is even nurtured– with death, whereas ours is rooted in a self-protective large-system rigidity that has rationalized far too many infringements on our own values– various alliances with Shahs, Noriegas, and Marcoses, and now bad-guy tribes in Afghanistan, Saudi royalty, and (sadly) murderous policies in Gaza.
    (Whew, long run-on sentence!)
    You’d think we’d at least have learned from our own guerilla roots in defeating the British.

  3. anne.elk Avatar
    anne.elk

    Oh, please Jeff, you deconstructed that as well as any Berkeley coed. Up is down and sideways indeed.
    “Failure of Imagination” is the only way the bipartisan committee, hand picked by the Chimp, could avoid the obvious, that this particular attack was seen, and predicted time and again by Clancy, by the UN, by the US, by the FBI, by the CIA, and by Hart and Rudman and woefully ignored by the Chimp (and by Clinton.)

  4. anne.elk Avatar
    anne.elk

    So what do you think of Richard Clarke’s recommendations? Sound about right, don’t they?

  5. Charlie (Colorado) Avatar
    Charlie (Colorado)

    Anne, I think it would all be solved if the entire middle east, jews and moslems all, would convert to Buddhism. What do you think of my plan?
    The problem with the Clarke recommendations, and the stuff Fred Kaplan is saying, is that it’s all well and good to say that we ought to, for example, set up a pan-Islamic council to fight the Islamic fascists… but I don’t see much sign of anyone who’s volunteering to sign up for that, and for good reason: they tend to get shot.
    How do you propose to get from here to there?

  6. Athena Avatar

    As for Richard Clarke’s recommendations….this really fisks him.
    I’m very hesitant of the Commission labeling it a War on Islamist terrorism and .

  7. Athena Avatar

    Oops, meant to say….
    and this is why.

  8. Swopa Avatar

    And don’t get too uppity and think about installing democracies amid hotbeds of tyranny. You should not invade Iraq and set up a democracy in the heart of the Middle East to set an example.
    Uh… when did we do this? Last I heard, we installed some guy without an election whose first priority was giving himself the right to declare martial law.
    And the saddest thing of all, after more than a year of lawless chaos amid empty promises of “democracy” and “freedom” from cynical, yet clueless American administrators, many Iraqis welcome the tempting stability of dictatorship.
    There IS a hunger for democratic government in Iraq and elsewhere, Jeff, but the toothless sanctimony of people like you — who wanted the moral self-congratulation of supporting “liberation” without the hard work of holding the Bush administration to its platitudes — betrayed that hunger. You should be ashamed.

  9. onecent Avatar
    onecent

    Look, there is no one person or agency to blame for 9/11. We’ve never lived on a common border with terrorists like Israel. AQ’s strength, global agenda, and rapacious tenacity took time to reveal itself. It all appeared so marginal until our generation’s Pearl Harbor on 9/11.
    The failure of imagination plays out now between the silly vs the serious since 9/11 – those that still don’t get that we are in as serious a war as the WWII generation with the ultimate stake being our western values and freedoms. Fascism comes in many flavors.
    My biggest fear is who will be in office after Nov 4th, a guy that gets it or a dope that doesn’t. The outcome will cost us time and lives. Personally, I think Bush gets it and if given a lameduck term can then put the screws to inept agencies, deal forcefully with Iran, and stay focused on the task. His biggest asset will be his lameduck status. And, please, don’t even try to correct me by saying Kerry has some better ideas. That’s a silly utterance.

  10. Swopa Avatar

    It’s about Islamic extremism. But it’s more than that. It’s about democracy. It’s about modernity. It’s about civilization.
    Actually, that’s not quite true. A recent Zogby poll of six Arab countries (all nominal US allies) showed that favorable impressions of the United States were below 20 percent — as low as 2 to 4 percent(!) in Egypt and Saudi Arabia — but positive opinions of American culture and political ideals were between 40 and 65 percent. So the widespread hatred you imagine toward “modernity,” “civilization,” and “democracy” isn’t there.
    Sorry to burst your bubble, Jeff. I know that you underwent a legitimately traumatic experience on September 11th, but at some point you might want to consider that paranoid self-righteousness isn’t quite the adaptive response you seem to think it is.

  11. Otter Avatar

    A recent Zogby poll of six Arab countries (all nominal US allies) showed that favorable impressions of the United States were below 20 percent — as low as 2 to 4 percent(!) in Egypt and Saudi Arabia — but positive opinions of American culture and political ideals were between 40 and 65 percent. So the widespread hatred you imagine toward “modernity,” “civilization,” and “democracy” isn’t there.
    The question, of course, is whether the terrorists are drawn from the 40-65% or the 35-60%. Or does every Egyptian and Saudi have to be an al-Qaeda member?

  12. onecent Avatar
    onecent

    we installed some guy without an election whose first priority…
    Hey, Swopa, Iraq is preparing for an election in January. We appointed a guy to transistion to and facilitate the election.
    Guess what, finding lame polls which can be countered by other lame polls just doesn’t cut it. Googling cuts both ways.
    Your packaged rant will get better acceptance with the Democratic Underground. Or are you just taking a break from that unique talent pool?

  13. Sortelli Avatar
    Sortelli

    …without the hard work of holding the Bush administration to its platitudes…
    Oh… is THAT what the ABB anti-war camp has been trying to do all this time?
    Who knew?

  14. Yehudit Avatar

    “Last I heard, we installed some guy without an election whose first priority was giving himself the right to declare martial law.”
    Tell that to all the Iraqis who have participated in free municipal elections for the first time this past year, decisively rejecting clerics and extremists, and electing secular professionals. Democracy is Iraq is happening from the bottom up. Also, we didn’t “install” Allawi. We suggested somebody different and the Iraqi council said they wanted Allawi. And he has high approval ratings from the Iraqi in the street.

  15. Swopa Avatar

    Hey, Swopa, Iraq is preparing for an election in January. We appointed a guy to transistion to and facilitate the election.
    And nearly the first words out of his mouth were that those elections might have to be delayed.
    As Spencer Ackerman (probably among others) has noted, rulers who get emergency/martial law powers almost never get around to surrendering them. Syria, apparently, has been governed under a “state of emergency” for 40 years.
    Tell that to all the Iraqis who have participated in free municipal elections for the first time this past year, decisively rejecting clerics and extremists, and electing secular professionals.
    And how many Iraqis would that be, Yehudit? All the information I’ve seen indicates that municipal elections only occurred in one province — after Bremer issued an order canceling local elections nationwide. (A step that I think severely damaged our credibility over there.)
    I agree that given the chance to vote, Iraqis would likely have spurned religious extremists, as they have in the limited elections you mention — which is why we should have taken Ayatollah Sistani et al. at his word and immediately pushed forward with nationwide municipal elections in 2003 (instead of canceling them, as I mentioned).

  16. Andy Avatar

    IS THE COMMISSION REALLY recommending that the various police and spy agencies of the US govt use their imagination to find terrorists and killers among the populace?
    The people who think the Patriot Act is over weaning would go ballistic at an agressively imaginative police agency. Civil Libertarians, the Supreme Court, and the citizenry would be outraged at the product of overactive imaginations.
    You are right. Citing a “Failure of Imagination” is to admit that there was no way to prevent the attack, without admitting it.
    They were supposed to find blame and couldn’t or wouldn’t. Therefore they mad up a charge and applied it. Yet, another reason why we think so highly of politicians and lawyers.

  17. JorgXMcKie Avatar
    JorgXMcKie

    Well, the obvious first thing we have to do is to organize a really, realy big Department of Imagination . . .

  18. pele Avatar

    Imagine
    Imagine there’s no heaven,
    It’s easy if you try,
    No hell below us,
    Above us only sky,
    Imagine all the people
    living for today…
    Imagine there’s no countries,
    It isnt hard to do,
    Nothing to kill or die for,
    No religion too,
    Imagine all the people
    living life in peace…
    Imagine no possesions,
    I wonder if you can,
    No need for greed or hunger,
    A brotherhood of man,
    Imagine all the people
    Sharing all the world…
    You may say Im a dreamer,
    but Im not the only one,
    I hope some day you’ll join us,
    And the world will live as one.
    Sorry, couldn’t help it.

  19. Michael Avatar
    Michael

    There’s no way to be completely safe from terrorists. That

  20. Pete Avatar

    Does anyone else think that even if the government had imagined this threat they would never have been able to implement the necessary security changes to prevent it?
    Everyone would have howled over all the inconvenience that was caused by preparations to defend against an attack that may never come. And if we launched a pre-emptive war to avoid it? Could you imagine the fall-out then?

  21. Jeff Brokaw Avatar

    Good post Mr. Jarvis. I linked to it (and added my own take) here – More Like, “Failures of Immigration”. Why no debate about immigration policies, when we know many of the hijackers entered the country much too easily? Isn’t it more than a tiny bit likely that 9/11 could have been prevented with a more stringent immigration policy? Maybe yes, maybe no, but why no discussion on the question?