Blogbiz: Bubble boy or baron?

Blogbiz: Bubble boy or baron?

: Jason Calacanis, late of the late Silicon Alley Reporter, has announced the start of his weblog company.

Nick Denton has already tried to burst Jason’s bubble:

Jason Calacanis, founder of Silicon Alley Reporter and boomtime hype-merchant, has re-emerged as a blog booster. God help us…. Calacanis is a smart and engaging guy, and I’m a believer in web media, but the last thing the world needs now is his brand of late 90s enthusiasm.

But rather than trying to hype weblogs, Calacanis is trying to dehype big media and thus look bigger in comparison. In this worldview, there’s zero-sum hot air and one must deflate the other guy’s bubble to inflate one’s own.

On my comments, below, Calacanis argues that big media can’t really do blogs; it’s an either-or, he says:

At a certain point a weblog stops being a weblog and starts becoming a newspaper, or perhaps more accurately a newswire. I think fact-checking and editing is one of those points.

Now, the public has an expectation that weblogs are unedited so they can be frequently updated, and that because of this dynamic sometimes there are errors on weblogs….

Now, the public has the *exact* opposite expectation of newspapers….

If publications like the NYT get into blogging they are going to confuse users—at least for a while. However, users are very smart and if the NYT put a disclaimer at the top explaining about what is going on… then there would be no issue….

He comes around grudgingly. But you can tell: He hopes newspapers don’t blog. (They will.)

: Now to Calacanis’ own business: It’s essentially a weblog syndicate for b2b blogs (in media, technology, business, life sciences — 100 in the first year, 500 in three years), offering hosting and other services; in return, he covers all his costs with the first cut of revenue and then splits profits 50/50 (by my calculations, he’s figuring each blog will pull in six figures). The Denton model, on the other hand, is to pay a pittance but pay nonetheless. The About.com model is (or was) a combination: a guaranteed payment with a split of the upside. Take your pick. The question for any of them is whether there is sufficient advertising revenue to support anyone in blogbiz. The answer: Not yet.

And that is why this has to grow slowly. It cannot grow ahead of advertiser acceptance and performance unless you want to go get a whomp of VC cash and start the implosion clock ticking down.

In the world of weblogs, small is good; small is what makes it possible for them to succeed. And patience is more than a virtue. Patience is an asset.

: But if that’s where Jason stopped — with a business plan and a prayer — I’d tip the hat, wish him luck, buy him lunch (which I’ll do anyway) and watch his progress with eager interest (which I’ll still do).

But what’s more interesting to me is the zero-sum hype game he plays (when — Denton’s right — hype is a dangeros toy to be playing with right now).

In his mission statement, Jason plays to flavor-of-the-month media bashing:

Traditional journalism is, in a word, broken. We’ve spent the last decade working in publishing (online and offline) and we believe that traditional journalism is imploding. Traditional news outlets like the New York Times are experiencing huge embarrassments like Jayson Blair. We believe these episodes are based on the increasing pressure media companies have to the

7 responses to “Blogbiz: Bubble boy or baron?”

  1. Matt Law Avatar

    Using About.com might not be the best way to make your point here. We already have the audience and the advertising base to go along with it. We adopted the blog format (which we love, by the way) to provide a richer experience for our readers on top the new and existing content we have on GuideSites. We’re not trying to build a business from the ground up via blogs.

  2. Rafat Ali Avatar

    jeff
    wish you would give some credit to the other guy behind this, the CEO Brian Alvey. And if you buy Jason a lunch, also make sure Alvey tags along :) Alvey is the anti-Jason, the best programmer there is, and what I know is that he will build a publishing/blogging tool which will be better than *ANY* tool out there. I haven’t seen it, but I just know.
    Beyond that, it will depend on how good their content is, whether the audience warms up to the blogs, and whether their sales people know how to sell it to advertisers.

  3. henrycopeland Avatar

    Let’s see, Mr. Calcanis is going to share 50% of the profits after his hardware costs and sales commissons are paid. So, assuming sales commissions are 30%… for every $10,000 in advertising revenue, a blogger will get let’s say… hmm… $2000?
    Sounds like Calcanis has basically replicated the cost structure of traditional media, minus the printing presses.
    There’s no room for blog owners/managers, unless the owner and operator are one and the same. As Calcanis himself has already noted vis former Gawker blogger Liz Spiers, bloggers who are employed by blogs are easily tempted by other offers.
    Why join Calcanis’ keritsu when a whole portfolio of best-of-breed services is already alive and constantly evolving. Relying on the blogosphere for network traffic, Movable Type and pMachine for blogging technology and Blogads for ad sales, the same blogger could keep $8000, less some Paypal fees.
    This is THIN media; lightweight tools, extreme specialization, fluid partnering, swarming individuals… lots of small pieces loosely joined, as Dave weinberger put it so nicely.

  4. Tim Porter Avatar

    “Talent wants to be free.” That’s the line that got me, too. I left “big media” for a more flexible freelance, consulting life — I got to spend several months at my house in Mexico this year — but when I have several projects going there are no days off.
    Talent wanta to be free? Sheeesh. Even at the height of the Big Boom here in San Francisco, we wanted to be made.
    Get real, Jason.
    Tim

  5. Tim Porter Avatar

    Typo alert — we wanted to be “paid.” But, then again, a lot of were “made,” too.

  6. hugh macleod Avatar

    Henry, to a certain extent I agree with you that all one needs is Moveable Type and some Blogad action…
    However, just as some people don’t consider themsleves “artists” unless they have a huge loft in Tribeca and fashionably-colored 8 foot canvases in whatever style is ‘hot’ that year, some people don’t think something is “business” unless it’s framed within a topheavy, expensive corporate structure. You think everybody wants to quit their job at IBM and start building the better mousetrap in the downstairs basement? Nope. For some people it’s just white collars and turning up to meetings, and that’s fine.
    I don’t know Jason or his biz very well, but I’m assuming he’s targeting those kinda folk. I’m assuming he’s thinking “a tiny proprtion of blogs will have serious money behind them, and dammit, those are the bloggers I want to know.”
    Like they say, the way to spot a pioneer is by the arrows sticking out of his back. But at least Jason is venturing West of the Mississippi. And for that I wish him Godspeed.

  7. henrycopeland Avatar

    Yep, Godspeed to anyone trying to strengthen blogging. Damnation to anyone who muddies the water for this wonderful idiom/technology.
    BTW, Marketingwonk.com is an interesting site to benchmark such efforts again. Marketingwonk is doing an excellent job serving news and analysis to a professional audience (marketeers), but the site is written by people with equity/options (I think) who are paid by new media pioneer Andy Bourland.
    I apologize for mispelling Calacanis’ name –I used the spelling in his sig line on the declaration headlining Weblogsinc.