Scoble’s already-infamous video shtick says that social-graph-based search (Mahalo, Techmeme, Facebook) will kill Google. And here’s a German newspaper publisher, Christian DuMont Schütte, who says
On my 50th birthday in the spring, I came up with the thesis: In 10 years, Google is dead. . . . We see the first signs already: The eBay euphoria is over. The lifecycle of internet ideas, in terms of content and technology, is completely different from conventional companies in the old economy. . . . (On the internet), the market can be conquered with new ideas again and again.
They both make the mistake of thinking — hoping, perhaps — that Google is too big or too old or too successful to change. I wouldn’t bet on that.
Scoble says it can’t change its algorithms because there’d be an outcry from those who depend on it. But watching companies that do depend on SEO, I can say that those algorithms change constantly. They just made a big architectural change adding in dynamic and multimedia information to search results. I would not assume that Google’s Jell-O is cold yet. Not by a long shot.
There’s another good question here: Can Google layer the social map onto the content map? More on that later.
: By the way, I agree with Dave.
