More new-fangled ads

More new-fangled ads

: Rishad Tobaccowala, chief innovation officer at Publicis Groupe Media and one of the very smartest guys in the future, says that…

Fragmentation and consumer control will drive the cost of digital media upwards by 20 to 30 percent annually over the next several years,….

“At some stage it becomes more expensive to buy Google than to buy network television,” said Tobaccowala, citing the pay-per-click auction environment and the costs of re-aggregating audiences once reached via a single network TV buy.

Google? Yes, probably. But aggregated, ad hoc, quality networks of citizens’ and professional media? No, I don’t think so. Because the unlimited world of content is by its nature a scarcity killer and because I do believe — if we get off our asses and make it happen — that new technology will enable advertisers to buy across those ad hoc networks of content and conversation of all sorts from any type of source and that that will end up being far more efficient than advertising today. Yes, it’s not going to be as easy to buy big globs of audience. But when you end up buying directed clusters of real customers, the pay off, the ROI as we say, will be far greater. See also Small is the New Big: Not all products and brands will be mass anymore and so their advertising will not be either. Yes, today, as Rishad points out, that re-aggregation of audience is expensive but that is in old media with old methods. Rishad continues:

Tobaccowala also predicts media buyers will simply have to pay more to capture people’s attention in an increasingly consumer-controlled culture.

“The cost of getting someone’s attention is going to go up much, much more,” he warned.

Some of those costs will be driven by targeting and measurement technologies necessary to reach increasingly fragmented audiences, while others will stem from the need to make creative more attention-getting, Tobaccowala said. Combining rich data with outstanding creative ideas is what’s needed in the future media environment, he opines.

“We believe the future is left brain and right brain. We believe it’s both,” he said. “It’s not going to be the tyranny of numbers, nor is it going to be the petulance of artists. You can program and numericalize as much as you want, but sooner or later you’re going to need the people and the ideas.”

Yes, yes, and yes. And how’s this for a punchline:

“People say, ‘media will take over everything; data will take over everything; digital will take over everything; search will take over everything,'” he warned. “And the truth of the matter is nothing will take over everything.”