BuzzMachine

The media pundit's pundit. Written by NYC insider Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine covers news, media, journalism, and politics.

What won it

13 comments on What won it

What won it

: The NBC exit poll includes some fascinating and surprising data. Among the issues that mattered most to voters, the top issue was not terrorism or Iraq.

The top issue (21%) was “moral values”; 78% of those who cared about that went for Bush, 19% for Kerry. That’s a huge difference. Read this one as you will (MSNBC commentators see it as code for Vietnam and the Swifties).

Next: economy/jobs at 20%; 81% preferring Kerry, 17% Bush. So Kerry got much better marks on the economy.

Terror comes in third at 18%; 85% preferring Bush, 15% Kerry. That’s the one that amazes me — not in the Kerry/Bush split but in the importance voters gave it. Bush ran on terrorism; it wasn’t No. 1 in the minds of voters; yet he still won.

Iraq comes in next at 15%; 75% preferring Kerry, 24% Bush. No surprise.

Health next at 8%; 79% preferring Kerry, 21% Bush.

Taxes next at only 5%; evenly split at 52% preferring Bush, 47% preferring Kerry.

Finally, education at 4%; 76% preferring Kerry, 23% preferring Bush. So much for the education president as a defining issue.

Also…

53% say we’re safer from terrorism now; 43% said not. That appears to be why terrorism came in No. 3 above; it’s hardly a nonissue, but it’s an issue declining in the priority list.

Iraq is similarly split: 53% say it’s going very/somewhat badly and 42% very/somewhat well. Not a landslide.

52% say Iraq is part of the war on terrorism; 45% say not.

13 responses to “What won it”

  1. chuck Avatar
    chuck

    Gosh, morals. What could that possibly mean? Swiftvets? Jeff, can the commentators possibly be so totally amoral that they don’t even *know* what morals are?

  2. Reid Avatar
    Reid

    One lesson driven home tonight is that the exit polls were not particularly valuable.

  3. Tom Grey - Liberty Dad Avatar
    Tom Grey – Liberty Dad

    I say Andrew Sullivan won it for Bush!
    http://tomgrey.motime.com/1099464914#368000
    The anti-abortion folk were activated by gay-marriage issues.
    Iraq is on track to be a success.
    The Swifties show that Kerry Lied (and good men died).

  4. Brett Avatar
    Brett

    You’re giving any credence to exit poll data?

  5. TMH Avatar
    TMH

    I was thinking about the 8% who said “health” was their main issue. Of course, in the context of a vote for President, this really means “government payment for medical care” is the main issue (unless they think Cheney is going to poison them or something).
    Also, 0% for “environment”? Or a poll that didn’t think to include it?

  6. billg Avatar
    billg

    I think this indicates that most people, most of the time, don’t vote based on issues.
    Chuck: Don’t be snarky. Don’t be wrong. I’m sure everyone knows what morals are. What’s at issue is what the phrase “moral issues” means. Seems to me that is is open to interpretation, because people disagree on what is moral and what is not moral. What’s going on in the theocratic Republican Party is that it wants to use the power of government to compel everyone to behave in accordance with its own beliefs. In my book, that’s both immoral and undemocratic.

  7. chuck Avatar
    chuck

    billg,
    People who cite moral issues know precisely what they mean. However, folks who can say “because people disagree on what is moral and what is not moral,” are living on another planet. Please go look at the Guardian interview with Tom Wolfe. He’s talkin’ about you.

  8. billg Avatar
    billg

    Chuck, are you asserting that there is one “right” morality? If so, which one? Presumably, you know. Why not let us in on the secret?
    I don’t care what you believe. And I expect you not to care what I believe. I do care, very much, if you want to use government to make me behave in a way you think is moral.

  9. chuck Avatar
    chuck

    billg,
    The point is that these people know what they mean. As you point out, you don’t. Now, you can either learn something, for instance, what they think, or you can remain ignorant.
    As to the relativity of morals, so what. We are talking a national culture here, and within this culture morals are not so relative as you think. This national culture is headed Republican because the Republicans embody this culture to a far greater extent than the Democrats. Even Kristof manages to grasp some of this point, see his column in todays NYTimes.

  10. Mike G Avatar
    Mike G

    “Terror comes in third at 18%; 85% preferring Bush, 15% Kerry. That’s the one that amazes me — not in the Kerry/Bush split but in the importance voters gave it. Bush ran on terrorism; it wasn’t No. 1 in the minds of voters; yet he still won. Iraq comes in next at 15%; 75% preferring Kerry, 24% Bush. No surprise.”
    Right, because if you voted for Bush you call the issue “terrorism” and lump Iraq into it, where if you voted for Kerry you call the issue “Iraq” and have swept terror off the table. They’re the same issue framed differently.

  11. Tom Grey - Liberty Dad Avatar
    Tom Grey – Liberty Dad

    The two closest docs we have for a “right” morality are: 1) the Ten Commandments, and 2) the UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
    There’s also the US Dec’l of Independence.
    What morality do you have?
    Mostly pro-life, against gay-marriage, in this case.
    Prolly also against Kerry’s Lies about Vietnam/ post war claims.

  12. billg Avatar
    billg

    So, Tom Grey, you’re saying that anyone who believes in the Ten Commandments, the Declaration of Human Rights, and the Declaraton of Independence has to be pro-life and against gay marriage?
    Or, are you saying that anyone who opposes outlawing abortion and thinks gay marriage is a civil, not a moral, issue is some kind of craven hypocrite?
    Listen, I don’t like abortion. I want to see as few as possible. But self-appointed so-called Christians who want to use the law to ban it are, in truth, engaging in their own immorality. People who think they are channeling God, who fantasize that they understand God’s will and that they are obligated to force everyone else to behave as they wish are great evils. People have every right to try to persuade me about their faith, but no one has the right to use government to compel me to act in accordance with their faith. That applies to American politicans as much as it does to fanatic Muslims with guns.

  13. David Boxenhorn Avatar
    David Boxenhorn

    My take on it is here.
    Sample:
    Next: economy/jobs at 20%; 81% preferring Kerry, 17% Bush. So Kerry got much better marks on the economy.
    This is the “none of the above” answer. Under normal circumstances, the economy is always top priority; people who put this first are the ones that can’t say moral values or terror, because then they would have to vote for Bush. In other words, people who wanted business as usual (i.e. agreed that “terror is a nuisance”) put this first.