Reversal of fortunes
: For the first time in weeks, I’m starting to wonder whether Kerry might actually pull it off.
29 responses to “Reversal of fortunes”
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Wait till Edwards debates Cheney. In reality this debate shouldn’t mean much, but with a trial lawyer such as Edwards pleading Kerry’s case against war-industrial-complex Cheney, the jury of America with likely render a verdict for the defendant.
Seeing Cheney again, people will be reminded of the power ceded to him by Bush which will remind people how out of touch W is with making important policy decisions. What’s worse being indecisive or giving up your decision-making role to read, “My Pet Goat” for 7 minutes?
The debates will not serve the GOP very well. Kerry’s lackluster Senate career (and Vietnam experience and medal throwing) won’t matter. -
DH the fact that you and the rest of the Moveon.org crowd still talk about “My Pet Goat”(sic) tells me everything that one needs to know about you.
Newsflash: As much as you secretly hope, Kerry probably won’t, if elected Pres (God forbid), appoint Mikhail Moore to the position of SofD. Sorry.
Oh and if 20 yrs of a very mediocre (to be kind) Senate career, support of communism (see central america and USSR), votes against Pershing missles to W Europe, votes against the first Gulf war, heated comments against the liberation of Grenada and a knee jerk desire to cut the military and intel agencies won’t matter, then MM was right about the stupidity of the American public. -
He, you chide dh for refercing the (old) 7 seconds issue, yet you revert to an equally tiresome use of “Mikhail” Moore. Let’s try to elevate the level of discourse, shall we?
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You’re right, Kerry may just win. Many conservatives and/or republicans I know were not strong Bush supporters, though my sample is biased as being fiscal conservatives. A lot of the country is reeling from the debates, more than one person I’ve spoken to was shocked at what a good speaker Kerry was. They knew Bush was bad, but were amazed at Kerry – I suppose they never looked at him from objective sources before?
Kerry isn’t exactly the most personable fellow, but he is intelligent and can present material in a coherent fashion. Now that people are recognizing how much he repeated himself during the debate, Bush’s blinking, deer-in-the-headlights, disgusted, and angry appearance in the debates is really starting to hurt him. This is from his strongest expected showing.
Wouldn’t it be nice if someone made it through the special-interest dominated politial process to run for president who actually was supportable rather than merely the lesser evil?
Another interesting point is that telephone polls giving us our split figures may not be accurate in an age where everyone has switched to cell phones, blueberry, and caller block/ID to screen out telemarketers. It might not be as close as we think. -
it’s a lock for kerry.
bush didnt get more votes 4 years ago, and he’s done nothing to change the minds of those who voted against him.
only right wing bloggers who care more about the fact that he calls himself a republican are going to vote for him again. they dont care about his record, his lack of communication skills, the war, the economy, or edjumacation. all they care about is the party the party the party the party.
youre reading the instapundit too much, who might be a good guy in real life but his blog is more one-sided than a globetrotters game.
if you only read the blogosphere’s reviews of F 9/11 you’d have thought that the film was a peice of crap… however in the Real World not only did the real people love it, but real film reviewers overwhelmingly praised it.
point of fact: rotten tomatoes compiled 191 reviews from around the world and only 16% of them gave it a negative review.
160 positive reviews out of 191.
you know i love the blogosphere, but when it comes to politics it’s clearly partisan and ridiculously out of touch. -
tony, you crack me up. Nothing like hearing accusations of partisanship from someone singing the praises of Micheal Moore’s F9/11.
Pot meet kettle.
wow, 160 positive reviews!!!!! Let’s just allow the film critics and Hollywood types to decide everything for us. -
160 positive reviews out of 191.
Wow well its hard to argue with that kind of um… research?
This is more proof that Kerry supporters are not serious people. They either think they are hilarious comedians, or they are brain damaged. -
It will depend upon the last thing the mindless swing voters hear before they enter the polling booth. Too soon to tell. :)
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“bush didnt get more votes 4 years ago, and he’s done nothing to change the minds of those who voted against him.”
Ah, the old “He didn’t win the popular vote” argument. Silly old Electoral College! Balanced representation is for kids!
BTW, I voted for Gore. This time I’m voting Bush. My mind has been changed. All because off 9/11 and Kerry’s lack of any kind of policy when it comes to national defense. -
Jeff, what we have here is similar to those two weeks before the Superbowl. Lots of talk. Lots of punditry. Lots of predictions. Little of consequence. But for the political-junkie, a feast.
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growler,
so what exactly is it about Bush’s lack of national defense policy that has you voting for him this time.
and what made you vote for Gore last time? -
and while we’re at it growler, what does bush’s invasion of iraq have to do with 9/11?
thats the sort of national defense you want to see more of? -
So ‘tony’ thinks that “only right wing bloggers” are going to vote for Bush? Traditionally, a 60-40 presidential vote is considered a huge landslide. What word would adequately describe a 99-1 vote?
Time for a rewrite, ‘tony’, and maybe a rethink, too. -
I guess the real question this election cycle is as follows:
Which number is higher?
A) Gore voters who are switching to Bush due to 9/11 and other factors;
B) Bush voters who either disagree with his policies or have become ABB’ers.
It’s difficult for me to believe that B is greater than A. So while it might be a close, it’s likely that Bush will win a second term. Yes, 9/11 *is* that important. -
the mindthink that 9/11 would have anyone vote for Bush is baffling.
bush got the pdr about obl before 9/11
bush sat there and read my pet goat when he was told about 9/11.
bush never interviewed the bin ladin family and let them fly out of the usa when no one else could fly.
bush never found osb
bush invaded iraq over wmd, which he never found.
he spent $150B fighting iraq and has only caused more chaos.
exactly how does that earn bush four more years on the grounds of national defense? -
“and while we’re at it growler, what does bush’s invasion of iraq have to do with 9/11?”
They are related in much the same way that our invasion of Morocco in 1942 was related to the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Try looking at the big picture, which in this case involves the widespread political reformation of the Middle East. -
Yes 911 is important. Too important to leave the decisions up to a President who can barely speak coherently. Bush was a cheerleader at Yale. He is the cheerleader President. 911 is important. It is very important to hunt down and capture the people who planned the attack. They weren
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Jeff – I’d like to know the source of your optimism.
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tony is once again pimping for Michael Moore, mindlessly repeating his mischaracterizations. All the while accusing bloggers supporting Bush for re-election out-of-touch and partisan.
That is sure to convince the undecideds. -
for he: you’re right–no more mention of all the bilge produced during this unproductive campaign season.
How’s about this:
1. anyone who is undecided at this point shouldn’t be allowed to vote come Nov.
2. i stand behind Kerry because of his abilities, and that’s all i see now.
3. bloggers are phony. All this crap about the citizens media is nonsense. Blogging is now all about fisking major media. Take note of who didn’t give much of an opinion right after the debate concluded. If blogs are all about instant media and reporting why the wait? To catch up the major media’s lead. Plain and simple.
4. Finally, any blogger who writes stuff like, oh Kerry might win after all, but maybe…you belong in a gilded cage sitting on a perch. If you don’t know what your opinion is, or you can’t trust your senses in what your observe and hear but require that Media digest it first, you’re just a gossip monger.
gotta go, Rush is talking about Tina Brown…he’s playing an audio clip of her blogging rant and Rahtergate..beautiful…Rush: “if it weren’t for the new media there’d be fraud against the United States” Rush now says he pays people to watch Tina’s show. BS
Parting shot: If they’d started to poll people with cell phones, we’d begin to see the truth about this election.
No more talk about the opponent. Say why your candidate will provide the solutions.
If you can’t stand the heat, go back to “My Pet Goat” (no sic). -
“Try looking at the big picture, which in this case involves the widespread political reformation of the Middle East.”
Dan – your comment seems to indicate that this big picture is the reason Bush invaded Iraq. But that’s NOT the reason he gave at the outset, that’s the reason he gave when his FIRST reason was proven to be bullshit. It’s the classic (dare I say it??) FLIP FLOP. -
What’s Kerry’s position on the WOT this week?
“Ask the French”
or “kill ’em all”?
“I will not hold a draft”
but “I will be able to recruit 40,000 new full time military personnel when there are armed conflicts going on”
As bad as Bush was Kerry wasn’t much of a comfort, he’s not going to do much differently than Bush. And Bush has been not so good at this point. At this point living in CA, I have two words for people…Go Nader! -
Here’s how Kerry could pick up millions of votes and be assured of victory: start talking about Bush’s weakness on border security and his incredibly bad “guest worker” plan.
As Time Magazine reported, up to three million illegal aliens will come across our borders this year. “Homeland security” indeed.
Bush’s “guest worker” plan would be open to teachers, nurses, high-tech workers and others. Expect to see millions of previously higher-wage jobs be reduced to near-minimum wage. -
And what’s this about containers arriving in the US? Kerry said something during the debate to the tune of 90% of all containers that arrive in the US are not inspected??? Is that accurate??? How is this so??
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but Mike, what if the bloggers who support bush *are* out of touch and partisan?
forget the so-called undecideds, how about us?
why on earth should we vote for bush after his pisspoor performance of fighting the wrong country after 9/11, after blowing the biggest surplus ever, after putting us into the biggest deficit ever, after creating a negative amount of net jobs, after not finding obl or wmd?
if the answer is “because he’s republican,” then be honest about it and say so.
at least the Anything But Bushers arent bs’ing anyone. -
“at least the Anything But Bushers arent bs’ing anyone.”
I dunno, tony, they seem to have done a pretty good job on you. -
Kerry doesn’t have to ‘pull it off’, Jeff. He’s been plugging along with a record of honest efforts that don’t always succeed but always aim for the highest he can reach. and the opposition has really strong commercials that distort his record on the downside, and even more strongly their record on the upside. Which eventually becomes tired and no one can keep pretending it even approaches the truth.
I like the ‘big picture’ about Pearl Harbor, etc. Remember the ‘domino theory’? How many died to keep the dominoes from falling, which was extended to being a threat to the U.S. (For anyone who doesn’t recognize it, the domino theory was the justification for all those men who died and were crippled in one way or another in Vietnam.) Hey, WMD has the same ring.
Anyone remember Eisenhower warning us about the ambitions of the military-industrial complex? That hasn’t changed, either. -
I’m not sure I see the reason for the optimism, but then again I’m responding after the Pew, WaPo/ABC, and Zogby post-debate polls showing Bush maintaining his lead with margins essentially identical to the pre-debate numbers.
The problems with the Newsweek poll are myriad and detailed extensively elsewhere. They are sufficient for any reputable pollster to have tossed the results and started over with a clean sample. That Newsweek chose not to is telling – especially in light of Evan Thomas’ prediction about media bias for Kerry.
I will say that I posted after the debate that although Kerry *appeared* to do well, the debate would wind up a net negative for him because he provided the Bush/Cheney campaign ammunition with his “global test” (which he made worse today by adding “elsewhere” to the “globe” – I guess he’s going for the extraterrestial vote now), his contradictory stands of unilateralism in Korea vs. multilateralism in Iraq, etc.
My take on the debate is essentially this: if the debate existed in a vacuum then it would have done Kerry some good. The problem is that it doesn’t. Kerry has been all over the place on Iraq, and according to Gallup voter interest in early September equalled levels not usually seen until mid-October. So that means that voters have seen his vacillation, and any boost for him will be extremely ephemeral.
There’s no point in responding to the Michael Moore conspiracy theories about Bush – they’ve been debunked over and over again, and repeating them for another thousand times doesn’t make them any more true than the original lie. If you’re still willing to repeat them, then you speak more about your own willingness to ignore reality than to the validity of any criticism of the president.
The bottom line is this: Kerry did well at the debate, but not well enough to change the dynamics of the race significantly. Democratic partisans will be heartened temporarily, but they will fall back to sniping at each other in anonymous quotes within the daily newspapers when the polls don’t show a real Kerry bounce. -
I’m hoping for a Bush victory, but the Republic will survive four years of Kerry (I hope). We’ll probably be in disgrace, as we were at the end of Carter’s one disastrous term, but we’ll survive. We’re survivors.
I can’t help but think, though, that this country couldn’t possibly elect a Neville Chamberlain or Jimmy Carter, Kerry’s historical forebears, during the first few years of a critical war.
