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The media pundit's pundit. Written by NYC insider Jeff Jarvis, BuzzMachine covers news, media, journalism, and politics.

Wide-open

3 comments on Wide-open

Wide-open
: Well, the trends are clear according to the ARG tracking poll from Jan 19-21, 20-22, 21-23:

: Kerry: 27 – 31 – 34 – Up, up up.

: Edwards: 9 – 11- 13 – Up, up up.

: Dean: 22 – 18 – 15 – Pffffft.

: Clark: 19 – 20 – 19 – Yawn.

: Lieberman: 7 – 7- 6 – Oh, well.

Meanwhile, Newsweek says 52 percent of Americans don’t want to re-elect Bush.

It’s a wide-open race!

I believe this means that most Americans are just now waking up to the need to pay attention to all these other candidates. Our media made a Dean-Bush race a sure thing. Now we have to figure out what we think of Kerry and Edwards.

So things have not settled down yet, not by a long shot.

Wide-open.

3 responses to “Wide-open”

  1. Roger L. Simon Avatar
    Roger L. Simon

    How does the ARG poll compare to Zogby in terms of predictive accuracy? Anybody know? I’ve heard a lot of negative comment about Zogby, but not much about ARG either way.

  2. rivlax Avatar
    rivlax

    Forget the polls. How does it FEEL? It FEELS like a landslide for Bush. This all feels like when we (I was a Dem back then) actually thought Mondale could win. Remember this next November.

  3. hugehawk Avatar
    hugehawk

    I just wanted to point out how worthless the Newsweek poll is that everyone is talking about. The only polls that are worth anything are ones that are restricted to likely voters (or at least registered voters). This is the description of the methodology used in the newsweek poll:
    For this NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,006 adults aged 18 and older Jan. 22 and Jan. 23 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
    This poll was for any adult over 18 which means at least 50% of these people wouldn’t even bother to vote. The NYT does these types of misleading polls too. Of course the reason they do this isn’t necessarily bias, they just don’t want to spend the money required for an accurate poll.