Did blogging hurt Dean?

Did blogging hurt Dean?

: I’m not saying this just to be contrarian. I’m not sure I believe it. But it’s worth asking:

Did blogging hurt Dean?

Did the strong community that made Dean’s organization and fundraising work so amazingly well become too insular and self-congratulatory? Did it amplify the opinions and attitudes already there? Did it become so loud inside that room that it became hard to hear the noise outside, where the voters were?

Did his enthusiastic supporters online egg Dean on to be stronger against the war, louder against his opponents, nastier against Bush?

I’m not sure the answer to any of that is “yes.” At most it’s “maybe.” But at least it’s worth asking.

I have said earlier that the Dean blog was a two-way street in terms of organization but not in terms of substance. And so I can’t blog with forked tongue now and say that the grass roots bent the tree above and changed Dean. No, Dean is Dean. I’m not blaming the blog for what he has done wrong so far — being so negative, focusing on the war as his one visible issue — and Dean can’t blame anyone else either. He’s the boss. It’s his loss.

But we all live online and we know how this is a self-confirming medium. You can find others’ opinions but you have do be willing to click and link to find them; you can’t live inside your own club or you’ll hear only what your fellow club members say to you.

The Dean blog was a strong tool for the campaign’s organization. But it was a club. It was really all about the comments. It wasn’t so much a blog as a forum, a place where people who agree can agree. And, again, that’s fine. But it’s not what blogs are really about.

Blogs are about links, links, and more links. Blogs are about learning, not just confirming. Blogs about the people speaking, the powerful listening.

So Bloggerstorm — an RSS compilation of blogs on Iowa outside the Dean tent (but put together, wisely, by the Dean organization in recent days) — turns out to be a stronger tool for hearing what the people are saying.

Bloggerstorm will let the campaign listen to the people. So will reading blogs outside the official blog.

And after Iowa, they need to find a way to listen.

Dean has not lost yet. But he got a big, loud message tonight. Now we’ll see whether he can listen.

And be prepared tomorrow to hear analyses — especially from big old media and big old politics — that will say the Internet and blogs didn’t win it for Dean, nya-nya-nya. They will be wrong, but not entirely wrong.

This medium is just beginning and if we’re going to see how effective it can be at changing the world, then the medium also has some lessons to learn from Iowa.

This medium is most effective when it interacts, connects, communicates, person-to-person, with curiosity, civility, and generosity. Oh, we disagree and argue and fact-check. But we talk and we listen and that’s what makes it work. It’s the conversation.

Forget the bandwagon. Get on the cluetrain.

23 responses to “Did blogging hurt Dean?”

  1. Otter Avatar

    I don’t claim to have an authoritative opinion here but here’s how it looks to me: Dean had a huge lead in polls and in media mindshare. Within the last three weeks, the big media suddenly teed off on him, either out of desire for a closer race or as the Democratic leadership decided they couldn’t afford to have him win the nomiation and started pulling strings. (Probably both, but mostly the former.)
    In particular, they just shoved John Edwards out of oblivion into second place.
    I’d say the lesson is that the big media are still far more powerful than a lot of romantics on the internet would like to think.

  2. John Avatar

    What a candidate says and how he/she acts in public remains more important than what their blog does. Dean’s actions leading up to Iowa violated Marshall McLuhan’s 35-year-old dictum that television is a “cool” medium and radio is a “hot” one. People don’t want in-your-face candidates in their living room for very long, let alone having them serve as president (It’s also why someone like Rush Limbaugh works on radio, but not on television — people will put up with a “hot” voice in a medium that demands you pay attention, but are rebuffed by the same personality on TV, which people can either watch or ignore during their daily activities).
    Dean’s speech tonight showed he still either hasn’t learned that lesson or is just unable to contain himself. Either way, if he keeps coming across like that there’s no way people are going to want to see and hear him on their television sets every day until at least Jan. 20, 2009 (and Wes Clark’s actions as of late place him in a similar category, though his personna isn’t as high-strung as Dean’s has been).

  3. John Avatar

    Blogs read too much into current events- they have to, it’s an hourly medium. Here’s the truth- Iowa does not matter. Bill Clinton got 3%in 1992. Clinton and Bush lost New Hampshire, too. Early primaries mean very little. Wait until March. It’s hard for bloggers to wait that long, but most Americans don’t read politics on an hourly schedule. Blogs sometimes read too much into what later turns out to be nothing.
    Having said that- here’s some bloggage-
    1. Dean ain’t dead. He’s still got the mullah. He’s still got a national organization. His opponents are going to have a hard time campaigning all over the place for the front- loaded February and March primaries. He lost in Iowa because he was out- organized (Kerry) and out- campaigned (Edwards went everywhere while Dean was screwing around getting endorsements.) That will be very hard to do from California to Virginia. Dean is still ahead most places, and the extrodinary effort Kerry and Edwards put into Iowa will be hard to duplicate.
    2. Watch John Edwards. If I were Bush, I’d be most worried about this guy.

  4. John Avatar

    BTW there are two different ‘John’s’ here.

  5. brian Avatar

    not to underscore you point on blogs and comments agreeing, but i would agree with your line of questioning. i noticed over time that the comments on the blogs were very clubby, and had a lot of inside jokes or lingos. for newbies coming in, there didn’t seem to be much assistance, though now and again, some would help. furthermore, anyone who raised a question, or raised constructive critiques were written off as a troll or a flamer. neither of which are good means of engaging folks in a civil discourse…which was one of the things that sucked me into dean’s campaign in the first place. the fact that the campaign was seemingly listening and dialoguing, that was cool. the self-congratulatory stuff, while i see it’s point, could go over the top as well.

  6. HH Avatar

    “people will put up with a ‘hot’ voice in a medium that demands you pay attention, but are rebuffed by the same personality on TV, which people can either watch or ignore during their daily activities”
    Forgetting a guy named O’Reilly are we?

  7. Jeremy Avatar

    The big story is that Dean has lost momentum. (Or maybe that Dean is in fact the lastest alias of Bruce Banner!). Clinton didn’t have any when he was running, so it doesn’t matter that he didn’t win Iowa.
    Anyway, he’s still a possibily, but despite my joking about it, his “concession” speech probably hurt him more than his showing in the caucus. His unflattering pictures should be all over the press tomorrow. He really looks like he completely lost it. Does he look like someone you want with their finger on the button? No. For Bush’s faults, we at least know what to expect out of him – maybe another war or two, but small ones.

  8. Jeremy Avatar

    Bear in mind, O’Reilly is not near as fat nor bloated as Rush Limbaugh, and despite claims to the contrary, is actually pretty much a moderate, and often jokes about himself. He gets angry and irrational, but only about a few things – the ACLU, Jesse Jackson, and Al Franken.

  9. John Avatar

    Point taken about momentum and Clinton. Jeremy- check out Drudge Report. The pictures are already out there. Dean Goes Nuts!

  10. John Avatar

    BTW agn, good article from TNR Jan 16 about why Kerry was suddenly alive again.
    http://www.tnr.com/doc.mhtml?i=express&s=crowley011604

  11. Reid Avatar

    “Early primaries mean very little. Wait until March.”
    You might want to check out how front loaded the primary schedule is this year. Look at the number of large states that will be “done deals” by March 9. In a little over 6 weeks, 60% of the country will have cast their primary ballot.
    That makes Iowa and New Hampshire perhaps more important than they’ve been before. No candidate has months to build momentum and regain the lead. They’ve got a month and a half.

  12. hugh macleod Avatar

    The reality is the average American doesn’t want the person with the “campus” vote running the country. The campus candidate gets killed every time, after months of angry hot air. Happens every 4 years for as long as I’ve been voting.

  13. Seth Finkelstein Avatar

    Media blather is sound and fury, but it signifies nothing (beyond media blather). I don’t have anything against Dean, he seems like a good guy – but I’ve never found him the inveitable force of nature that pundits anointed him in the media script (build up, tear down, repeat). Dean was very popular with one segment of the chattering class, but that’s far from the whole country.

  14. billg Avatar

    I think there’s more to Dean’s loss than a rejection of the “campus” candidate. The act of defining a movements establishes that movement’s limits.
    Dean deliberately packages his campaign as a movement. Movements have implicit membership requirements and standards of behavior. Potential voters who might otherwise vote for Dean but don’t see themselves as joining a “movement’, who don’t identify with Dean’s movement, go elsewhere.
    Dean, as well, often conveys the impression that his candidacy takes secon place to the success of the movement. That’s another opportunity for voters who don’t identify with the movement to walk away.
    Relying on anti-war votes is a mistake for Dean. It didn’t work during the Vietnam war, a war several orders of magnitude longer and more deadly than our current engagement in Iraq: McCarthy was not nominated, Kennedy got shot, McGovern carried one state and the Democrats handed the White House to Nixon.

  15. KMK Avatar

    Just wondering – how many people in Iowa read Deans blog?

  16. Greg Budzban Avatar
    Greg Budzban

    I think you bring up an excellent point about Blogs in general. In mathematics I study the behavior of probabilistic dynamical systems. Their behavior tends toward “concensus” roughly (modeled in mathematics by a uniform distribution), but only if they are in a “closed” system.
    Blogs offer the opportunity for large, “closed” systems of people of like-minded opinions to talk to each other. Before, if you wanted a good conversation, you would have to include a few people who didn’t agree with out, out of shear necessity of numbers. Now you can find scads of folks who thinks almost like you, and reinforce your opinions. “I must be right, all these folks agree with me”

  17. John Avatar

    HH —
    “Hot” personnas on TV can work for a while — think Morton Downey Jr.’s old show on WWOR in New York that gained great ratings for a while in the 1980s before flaming out. O’Reily is showing signs of wearing out his welcome with some of his audience, though given the smaller demands of cable TV news ratings (and the even smaller 8 p.m. EST ratings of rivals CNN and MSNBC) he can probably survive for a while even if his trajectory is no longer upwards.
    Also, look at what happened when MSNBC tried to got for that “hot” host appeal when they hired Michael Savage; his ratings weren’t all that great even before he did himself in (with a remark that probably would have made it through relatively unnoticed on radio). Dean has the same problem in front of a camera — he might be good for a short time, especially if he’s mad about something you personally care about, but for a candidate to be pepetually perturbed is just not a good image to present to the American public.

  18. Richard Bennett Avatar

    A vote for Dean isn’t simply a statement of political preference, it’s a membership application to a crazy suicide cult, and most Democrats aren’t interested in dying quite yet.
    At the end of the day, it wasn’t blogs that killed Dean, it was Dean.

  19. Skeej Avatar

    Deaniacs were “Drinking their own bathwater”, a common malady from the Internet/tech bubble. Do blogs make this worse? Of course it does, in that the audience tends to concentrate and self-reinforce itself in most blogs.

  20. Joey Giraud Avatar
    Joey Giraud

    Everyone is being spun by the media about Dean. The angry man clip is going to be shown all over America to people who have never seen Dean and they will be frightened away?
    How about the alternate possiblity that there are lots of Americans who really are angry about Bush, but aren’t saying that? And that this first view of Dean will associate him with that anger?
    One possible reason for the Kerry/Edwards surge is that a lot of unregistered Republicans unhappy with Bush crossed the aisle to vote for the Dem they would be able to pull the lever for in November.
    This would be bad for Bush and bad for Dean.
    Greg Budzban , you might find Thom Hartmann’s observations about natural democracy in herd behaviours to be interesting.
    Download some of his recent shows at http://www.whiterosesociety.org

  21. Angus Jung Avatar
    Angus Jung

    “How about the alternate possiblity that there are lots of Americans who really are angry about Bush, but aren’t saying that? And that this first view of Dean will associate him with that anger?”
    Weirder things have happened!

  22. Houck Avatar

    Bloggers don’t vote.

  23. krucoff Avatar

    I’m writing this after getting here via the link Jeff left in Clay Shirky’s post about this issue, a week later. So, take it with a grain of salt and the passage of time, reading what everyone else I said. As usual, I think everyone has made the right points: 1) self-gratifying closed community 2) the standard media script of build-up and tear down (and not just about Dean, blogs in general too) 3) blogs’ influence to act instead of just commenting.
    I love that one by Houck: Bloggers don’t vote, but I would have phrased it as “Voters don’t blog.” There are a lot more voters than bloggers and even if all the blog vote got out I don’t think it would make that much of difference, for now. I think voters eBay, but I’m not sure it’s relevant in a political campaign. :)