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What are the magic numbers?

10 comments on What are the magic numbers?

What are the magic numbers?
: I’ve been meaning to ask: What are the magic numbers for Iowa and New Hampshire — the numbers below which Dean’s showing is “disappointing” and above which the others’ are “impressive”?

The magic number is picked out of thin air or pundit’s butts, of course, but it matters. When Gene McCarthy got a surprising and impressive show in New Hampshire, he got Lyndon Johnson to quit. When Ed Muskie got a disappointing showing (even though he’d won) in New Hampshire, it killed his campaign.

So what are the magic numbers? Pundit away….

10 responses to “What are the magic numbers?”

  1. Jeff B. Avatar
    Jeff B.

    Nowhere to post this relevantly, but they’re discussing blogs on Meet The Press – a long, somewhat benighted discussion. Roger Simon (not our mystery novelist friend, but the U.S. News guy) sounds rather old media. I don’t know…there’s something rather grating and irksome about watching major media figures discuss blogs as a strange, foreign phenomenon, like they’re examining a rare butterfly on a stick-pin.
    It’s not an awful discussion – Russert asks a damn good question, which is whether or not the Deanbloggers (i.e. the readers) will actually get out to vote – but still…’wrong’ in a sense I can’t put a finger on.
    (Sorry for the off-topic posting.)

  2. Cracker Barrel Philosopher Avatar
    Cracker Barrel Philosopher

    I’ve been wondering the same thing. Since the story of the last few weeks has been Dean’s loss of momentum, I suspect the bar will be fairly high. How about %10 (i.e. below is single digits)? Of course, since he won’t get a majority either place, it’ll be a spinner’s delight.

  3. Cracker Barrel Philosopher Avatar
    Cracker Barrel Philosopher

    I should have elaborated – I’m voting for a bar of %10 of the total primary/caucus participants more than the nearest competitor.

  4. Hei Lun Chan Avatar
    Hei Lun Chan

    Iowa
    impressive: 5% or more over Gephardt
    disappointing: 1% or 2% over Gephardt, or if he loses, of course
    New Hampshire
    impressive: more votes than the next two candidates combined
    disappointing: Clark or anyone else comes within 10%

  5. Robert Avatar
    Robert

    Gephardt wins if he gets over 25%. All polls have him around 22-25, so anything over and he can spin a win. Edwards does better than expected.
    Dean gets around 30% and losses no matter what. Hey you were supposed to win, big deal. The story will be the undecided voters went to other candidates. Leaving folks asking Dean if this means it will be a long campaign and if he has to win in a huge way in New Hampshire.
    Bush wins by reminding everyone he is the President during the SOTU on the next day.

  6. Peter Avatar
    Peter

    Please, Jeff…the fewer images of, say, Tim Russert picking ANYTHING out of his butt, the better.

  7. Chris Avatar
    Chris

    my SWAG
    Dean has to win to turn the negative media around. They are starting to point out he’s in the lead but hasn’t won any delegates yet. Better for him if he’s at least 5% better than second place.
    Gephardt also has to win to have any hope following New Hampshire. I don’t think he can spin a close second into a win, the most he can do is carp about Dean bussing in carpetbaggers. He’ll have trouble keeping up momentum unless he becomes the giant slayer (5% better than Dean) because he is thin on the ground in NH.
    Edwards got the Iowa Kiss of Death from the Des Moines Register. They haven’t backed the winner in the last two contested Democrat caucuses. A second place would start to generate some real buzz but I don’t think he’ll do it. He’s not coming up fast enough.
    Kerry is the big loser, finishing no better than third in both states. Hero to zero in twelve months.
    Dean also has to win NH big – 10% better than second – to keep up expectations. Watch for Clark to pull into second, especially if Kerry and Edwards are duking out for third place.
    If Dean wins pretty convincingly in both states, he’ll be on a roll to the nomination because Gephardt, Kerry, and Edwards will be splitting the second and third place spots, with Clark in as a spoiler. No clear ‘anybody but Dean’ is going to emerge.

  8. Tom Grey Avatar
    Tom Grey

    Jeff, asking for numbers is excellent. Not offering your own is a bit, um, less than stellar.
    Hei Lun & Robert both did well, but I echo Chris that at least 5% over second is needed to win; at least 10% to deserve expectations.
    (BTW, I oppose Lincoln’s War to Free Slaves because it was too expensive in US lives; I’d say more than 1% of men aged 16-40 dying is too many for any cause except to repel invasion. Just as a reference.)

  9. Jeff Jarvis Avatar
    Jeff Jarvis

    Tom: I really don’t know. That’s why I asked.

  10. AB Avatar
    AB

    Dean needs 40% in New Hampshire.