For war

For war
: The NY Times reviews William Shawcross’ Allies, a case for the war in Iraq.

William Shawcross, who made his journalistic reputation as the scourge of Henry Kissinger (in ”Sideshow”), and later anatomized the failures of international aid and of humanitarian intervention (in ”The Quality of Mercy” and ”Deliver Us From Evil”) — that William Shawcross — has written a polemic ardently endorsing the war in Iraq. And that’s not all. Shawcross also argues for the Bush administration’s aggressive use of the doctrine of pre-emption, Donald Rumsfeld’s distinction between old and new Europe, the neoconservative case for regime change, the perfidy of the French, the indispensability of the Americans and much else to gladden hearts in Washington.

Having picked himself up the floor, reviewer James Traub says the English press tried to psychoanalyze a reason for this apparent anomaly but Traub says:

…it’s more instructive to consider the possibility that Shawcross has remained true to his principles, but that a morally driven foreign policy looks very different after 9/11 than it did before.

Shawcross is scarcely the only liberal or leftist to see the war in Iraq as the consummation, rather than the contradiction, of his principles. Christopher Hitchens is the best-known example; others include Paul Berman, Bernard Kouchner and Andre Glucksmann. These few brave souls have been pilloried by their coreligionists, who are inclined to view the United States as a greater threat to world peace than Iraq. Shawcross must have caught a lot of this himself, for he takes up the cudgel against the ”hate-America-first” crowd, so busy loathing President Bush that they can spare ”not a word about what the Iraqi people had suffered for decades.”

Amen.

Traub gives a history lesson to explain liberal support for the war:

In the 90’s, force was used or, more often, not used, in the face of humanitarian catastrophe, in Rwanda, Bosnia, Kosovo, East Timor and elsewhere. This scrambled the old ideological alignments, dividing both left and right. The antiwar left and realpolitik right opposed these ”CNN wars,” while the Wilsonian moralists of left and right championed them….

The attack on the World Trade Center upended the doctrinal order yet again. In the era of weapons of mass destruction, monstrous dictators, especially monstrous dictators in the Middle East, had become a threat to the West as well as to their own beleaguered people, so that humanitarian crises now had a strong national security element. This was the case for regime change in Iraq advanced by figures like Paul Wolfowitz; and it is Shawcross’s as well. Though he appears to believe that Saddam Hussein’s barbarity alone would justify intervention on humanitarian grounds, he also argues that Hussein’s fascist state posed the same order of threat that Hitler’s once did. The failure of much of continental Europe to support the war in Iraq, he insists, ”showed that it was still capable of failing the test that it flunked” in the 1930’s. Put that in your pipe and smoke it, M. de Villepin!

Amen again.

Traub doesn’t much like the book, saying that it is high on polemics, low on reporting. But he says the fact that Shawcross has written this book alone makes it important. And the fact that this perspective — in favor of humanitarian intervention and preemptive defense — is published also makes it important.

: UPDATE: THE Roger Simon has more.

35 responses to “For war”

  1. Robert Avatar

    >he also argues that Hussein’s fascist state posed the same order of threat that Hitler’s once did.
    This comparison, besides being nothing more than rampant hyperbole, belittles all those who fought against the fascist forces in Europe during WWII. Saddam was a washed up dictator who was barely even able to hang on to control of his own nation, never mind pose a threat to any other nation of the world.

  2. John Avatar

    Shawcross’ generally favorable book about Rupert Murdoch a few years ago also shocked some people on the left, for it’s failure to adhere to the standard political dividing lines. Those on the left who remembered that book probably were less suprirsed than Traub that Shawcross held opinions about the Iraq which didn’t hold to the conventional wisdom on the left nowadays.

  3. Michael J. Totten Avatar

    What is weird to me is that anyone thinks Mr. Shawcross is weird.

  4. Gavin Phillips, UK Avatar
    Gavin Phillips, UK

    “The failure of much of continental Europe to support the war in Iraq,..”
    I agree with the entire article, except this line. It is very tiresome to see this fiction bandied about time and time again. The great majority of countries in Europe heartily SUPPORTED the US and UK in going into Iraq. You wouldn’t know it though from the anti-war press on both sides of the Atlantic, and it’s about time this fiction was exposed.

  5. Anthony Avatar

    Well, said Gavin. It is a point worth repeating again and again. Nearly 60% of Europe supported the Iraq war. France and Germany are not the only countries in Europe.

  6. Charlie Avatar

    Robert, you ninny, if Europe had stomped on Hitler when he took the Sudetenland, he wouldn’t have “posed the same order of threat” either.
    That’s the whole point: we can’t let another fascist become the kind of threat Hitler was. If we do, the inevitable war would start with New York becoming a glowing hole in the ground, and would (considering the history of WWII) end with total destruction in the Middle East.
    This would not be a good thing.
    In the mean time, the people under fascism would be suffering all the things people under fascism suffer: midnight knocks by the secret police, politically connected madmen murdering and raping with impugnity, mass graves.
    This is also not a good thing.
    All of the approaches we tried short of war — sanctions, inspection, no-fly zones, diplomacy, and South Park — did nothing to improve the conditions of the people of Iraq, and did effectively nothing to reduce the threat of fascism enduring in Iraq, waiting for the next chance to expand. And the bottom line is this: anyone who argues that we should have continued with sanctions and inspections is arguing that letting a fascist continue to murder “his” people was more desirable than what actually happened.

  7. godlesscapitalist Avatar

    I support the Iraq war (for the most part), but it’s not really true that “Europe supports the war”. The governments do, but the people did not.
    http://abcnews.go.com/sections/scitech/WhosCounting/whoscounting030302.html

    One hears repeatedly that 16 of 19 European countries (including the big three of Albania, Bulgaria, and Croatia) support the U.S. position on Iraq. There is the implicit claim that Europe therefore supports the U.S. point of view.
    A more modest conclusion is that for a wide variety of reasons the administrations of 16 of 19 European countries have decided to follow the Bush administration’s lead. National polls indicate, however, that in almost all these countries there are solid, and in some cases huge, majorities opposed to war at this time. Even in the United Kingdom there is strong popular opposition.
    Given the polls, it seems safe to say that the majority of Europeans agree with the minority position of the much-derided French, German, and Belgian governments. Since the questions of the various national polls differ and since different countries have different concerns, comparing them is a bit like comparing Camembert and Gorgonzola.
    Nevertheless, the claim that Europe supports the U.S. position on Iraq is misleading at best.

    Also, Saddam was not Hitler in the sense that he did not pose an external threat. he had nothing like the military machine of Hitler. Did he kill lots of people? sure. so have warlords all over the world, like suharto, yahya khan, mobutu sese seko, idi amin, and so on. too many to count, honestly.
    We didn’t step in this time because of moral concerns. At least, I hope we didn’t. Remember, we didn’t fight World War Two to save the Jews…we fought it because of the Japanese. All the stuff about the Holocaust being “uniquely evil” is post-facto, retrospective, and selective. After all, comparable holocausts happened in russia, china, cambodia, bangladesh, armenia, north korea, and other places…but you don’t see us invading north korea now. this is because stopping that genocide is costly to both the south koreans and us. we’re not going to take that cost for charity purposes.
    So yeah – to return to the original point – in this case, there’s no question that the people of Iraq are better off, but the USA did not go to war for moral or charity purposes. The idea was to establish a base in the Middle East, intimidate dictators, stop weapons proliferation by showing our willingness to use force, etcetera. I understand and agree with this idea, which Bush could not explicitly state.
    my point being: the only reason to bring up the humanitarian argument is this: you cannot oppose the iraq war on humanitarian grounds without being inconsistent. it is a useful tool to club idiot ANSWER leftists over the head with, but useless when dealing with serious realpolitik people.
    bottom line:
    right wingers maintain that the iraq war was good for the us and good for iraq.
    left wingers say it was bad for the us and bad for iraq.
    truth is that it was indisputably good for iraq and bad for the us in the *short term*. in the long term it may yet turn out ok. i think and hope it will. but without the wmd presence, the short term justification in terms of US national security is not there.

  8. Jeff Jarvis Avatar

    Well said, Charlie.
    The real moral argument, of course, is that we waited too long to free Iraq.

  9. billg Avatar

    Cheers to Shawcross for thinking for himself. Far too many people — on the left, right, and center — let their ideology do the thinking.

  10. Charlie Avatar

    Thanks, Jeff.
    I think what this all really shows is how empty the word “liberal” has become in ordinary discourse: it’s been degraded to “politically opposed to Republican policies, no matter what they may be.” Sort of like the way the devoted Communists during the collapse of the Soviet Union became “Right wingers”, or for that matter the way that Bush’s radical attempt to change the status quo in our favor has become “conservative”.

  11. Charlie Avatar

    Two disagreements, GC: First, I disagree that Saddam didn’t pose an external threat. The external threat was neither imminent nor as large-scale as the threat had been before the Kuwait invasion, but so long as Saddam was in power and providing support to Palestinian terror, there was a real external threat. Not even considering possible al Qaeda connections.
    Second, I disagree that we’re worse off in the short run: thgere are unfortunate losses, but clear progress world wide in the war on terror and the desire to bring rogue states under control.
    But those things aside, I agree with the thrust of your argument.

  12. hen Avatar

    money quote: Europe “showed that it was still capable of failing the test that it flunked” in the 1930’s — amen.
    how anyone can look at the zeropeans as our moral or intellectual betters is beyond me.

  13. linden Avatar

    Word to hen.
    “Also, Saddam was not Hitler in the sense that he did not pose an external threat. he had nothing like the military machine of Hitler. Did he kill lots of people? sure. so have warlords all over the world, like suharto, yahya khan, mobutu sese seko, idi amin, and so on. too many to count, honestly.”
    I want to point out something I read about Saddam’s plans for after the invasion of Kuwait. This was in Time Magazine years ago but they apparently had cause to believe that, after Kuwait, Saddam intended to take even larger chunks of the ME aka try to grab more land. Left alone he would have been in a position to control much of the world’s oil. When we kicked Saddam out of Kuwait, we did the equivalent of kicking Hitler out of Czechoslovakia. We were stupid though. Can you imagine kicking Hitler out of Czechoslovakia and leaving him in charge of Germany? The man was a ticking time bomb. It had to be done.

  14. Andrea Harris Avatar

    I get the feeling that godlesscapitalist is in the thrall of the “Hitler is the Greatest Evil Humanity is Capable of Producing” meme. Every fascist dictator A.H. (After Hitler) is therefore small potatoes and thus not to be taken seriously. I mean, sure, we could have “contained” Saddam for a while longer, but how long do you expect to be able to hold a lid down on a boiling pot before it boils over?

  15. Robert Avatar

    >That’s the whole point: we can’t let another fascist become the kind of threat Hitler was.
    Saddam was not allowed to become the kind of threat Hitler was. Saddam was made to dismantle his WMDs and programs. Saddam’s ability to wage war against his neighbours was stopped by sanctions that crippled his army. No fly zones were set up to stop him from carrying out his brutal repression of the Kurds and Shia’s. Saddam was not a threat to anyone precisely because he was not allowed to be. The international community did not fall down on this. They stopped him before he became the type of threat Hitler was. And that was proven by the fact that the US army rolled over him like he wasn’t there.

  16. Robert Avatar

    >Left alone he would have been in a position to control much of the world’s oil.
    You seem to be missing the point that he was not left alone to carry out his plans. He was stopped dead in his tracks. He was tossed out of Kuwait and his ability to wage war ever again was crippled to the point where most of his army’s equipment no longer even functioned. Saddam could not even have invaded Kuwait successfully again.

  17. Robert Avatar

    >how anyone can look at the zeropeans as our moral or intellectual betters is beyond me.
    It’s easy when you make statements like that.

  18. Charlie Avatar

    Right, Robert, he was stopped. But for how long? His allies on the Security Council (Russia, France, China) were lobbying hard to end the sanctions; the Kay report makes it clear that whether or not he had WMD in hand, he had preserved the capability to make them quickly, as well as preserving the essential “intellectual property” of a nuclear weapons program.
    If that ever happened, the risk to us would multiply, and the probability of an eventual nuclear war in the MIddle East would become near certainty.
    This, again, would be a bad thing.
    Now, assume that the sanctions were not lifted: then, to keep Saddam stopped, we would have had to continue the sanctions — which would mean continuing a situation in which Shi’a children were being allowed to die for lack of medicine while Saddam put the “Oil for Food” money into another palace, and the corpses left unburied so their bodies could be paraded as “proof” of what the sanctions were doing; in which an Air Wing and a carrier squadron were engaged in perpetuity in low-intensity air combat; and in which Saddam continued to fund Hezbollah, Hamas, and yes, al Qaeda. (Don’t even bother to do the “no proof” trope about al Qaeda; anyone who reads the news from abroad with an open mind couldn’t help but be convinced that al Qaeda got at least some support.) The Iraqi people’s only hope would be bloody revolution.
    Maybe your conscience can handle that; mine couldn’t.

  19. hen Avatar

    Linden – what you say does not obviate the simple fact that our Euro “allies” (aka France, Germany) managed to once again prove their worthlessness.
    Robert – When i am President of the USA and i make statements on Europe’s lack of intellectual or moral character, then by all means tell me how i am no better then them – in the mean time, as a private citizen who sees millions of Euro’s marching in support of 1) Saddam, 2) the PLO and 3) against America, they and you can piss up a rope.

  20. Robert Avatar

    >His allies on the Security Council (Russia, France, China) were lobbying hard to end the sanctions;
    No they weren’t, you dishonest rube. They were lobbying for reduced sanctions so that Iraq could get the necessary materials it needed to repair its crumbling infrastructure. They wanted sanctions lifted off materials that hospitals needed, that water treatment plants needed, etc. There was never going to be a lifting of sanctions on the materials Saddam would have needed to begin making WMDs again or rebuild his army.

  21. Robert Avatar

    >you can piss up a rope.
    Ah, yet another display of your moral and intellectual superiority.

  22. Charlie Avatar

    Robert, ignorance is no excuse.

  23. Charlie Avatar

    Dammit, missed the preview button; sorry.
    Robert, if you werne’t completely functionally ignorant about this topic, you would know that (1) the materials used by Saddam to build his palaces were exactly the materials that were missing to repair his aging infrastructure; (2) you would know that shortly after the war immense stockpiles of the drugs and supplies the people needed and theoretically should have gotten from the Oil for Food program were instead found in the homes and offices of the Ba’ath fascists; and (3) you would respond somehow to the question of how your conscience can be reconciled to the notion that you would damn the Iraqi people to murder, rape and torture into the forseeable future.
    As I said, mine can’t. If your can, you’re simply making it clear that you’re a man of no honor and no morality who is too much the coward to consider the consequences of the course you recommend. As such, I can’t even imagine that your opinion of my honesty would have any importance.
    Now, begone to you; you don’t deserve the society of civilized people.

  24. Andy Freeman Avatar
    Andy Freeman

    > They were lobbying for reduced sanctions so that Iraq could get the necessary materials it needed to repair its crumbling infrastructure. They wanted sanctions lifted off materials that hospitals needed, that water treatment plants needed, etc.
    Except that there never were sanctions that stopped Iraq from these activities. There were no sanctions on the relevant materials. The only sanctions were on the amount of cash from oil, and the amount allowed was more than sufficient. The only reason that these things weren’t done is that Hussein spent the money elsewhere.
    Is there any reason to believe that he’d have run out of other things to spend the money on?
    Which reminds me – we’re still waiting for an accounting of the oil for food program. You remember – the program run by the UN to spend legal oil revenue for the benefit of the Iraqi people.
    Surely the money wasn’t just stolen. Was it diverted to the PLO? To Chirac’s cronies?
    I know – this is one of those “nuance” things.
    > There was never going to be a lifting of sanctions on the materials Saddam would have needed to begin making WMDs again or rebuild his army.
    Since he actually did rebuild said army….
    We’re still finding that most everyone[1] was quite willing to sell anything under the table….
    [1] The US being the big exception, although N. Korea stiffed Hussein on a couple of occasions.

  25. Floyd McWilliams Avatar

    “They were lobbying for reduced sanctions so that Iraq could get the necessary materials it needed to repair its crumbling infrastructure. They wanted sanctions lifted off materials that hospitals needed, that water treatment plants needed, etc.”
    So when Russians sold night vision goggles and radar jammers to Iraq, were they to be used in hospitals or for water treatment?

  26. Lynne Avatar

    Saddam Hussein indirectly landed us with 9/11. If we had removed him in 1991 we wouldn’t have needed troops in Saudi Arabia and so Mr. Bin Laden would have had no cause for complaint. Also, Saddam was agitating to become the leader of the Arab world. It is better for us that he is gone. I just wish we had done it 12 years earlier when it would have been much easier.

  27. Doctor Slack Avatar
    Doctor Slack

    Except that there never were sanctions that stopped Iraq from these activities. There were no sanctions on the relevant materials
    There was disagreement on what aspects of the sanctions were responsible for the humanitarian crisis that resulted from the Iraq sanctions. Most researchers in the field did not believe the damage could be attributed to Hussein alone, and in fact contended that the sanctions in some ways reinforced the Baathists by making the population dependent on government infrastructure. I thought their contention accurate.
    As for the rest: a short guide to serious pro-war commentary vs. unserious blather or outright looniness:
    1) Serious supporters of the war viewed Iraq as a threat in context: eg. as a potential threat to its neighbours, and to the US via a WMD arsenal and terrorist connections. One may or may not agree with this, but it’s at least understandable.
    Unserious commentators viewed Hussein as a threat on the order of Hitler and pretended as much. There is simply no comparison. Hussein was not such a threat and could not have become one in a hundred years, let alone one, five, or ten — especially given that the West was well-placed to intercede if he did try to threaten anyone, and had done so before. Anyone saying otherwise is a prat and needs to be told so in no uncertain terms.
    2) Serious humanitarian supporters of the war, while they were aware of war’s destabilizing and destructive long-term effects, took a good long look at Hussein’s regime and thought the trade-off worth it. They may be right, or they may have been duped, but it’s a respectable position.
    Unserious supporters of the war think it’s so self-evident that war was preferable to another day of Saddam Hussein’s rule that the question is clear-cut, and anyone who disagrees with them immoral. These people are prats, and their tears for the suffering Iraqi people likely crocodile tears; you won’t see them showing any sympathy for Iraqis who are suffering from the war and occupation, or even acknowledging that such suffering could exist.
    3) Serious supporters of the war showed an abililty to debate on the facts, and restraint about what they accepted as fact and what they didn’t. They did not simply and immediately parrot the party line on any issue that seemed to favour them, and they distinguished documented fact from rumour.
    To unserious supporters of the war, any bit of data that seems like a point for “their team” is fact, no matter how tenuous the rumour (like the Russian night goggles claim) or how unfounded the innuendo (like insinuations about oil-for-food money and “Chirac’s cronies”).
    I’ve talked to serious supporters of the war. Unfortunately, they’re thin on the ground.

  28. a.t.o. Avatar

    Humanitarian arguments for this war strike me as a tad disingenuous. At best, ending the suffering of the Iraqi people is a P.R. bonus. After all, if that was in itself a motivation for war, John Garang would be toppled in the Sudan, (or even Mugabe in Zimbabwe). No. It’s obviously an issue of containment. Saddam Hussein was evaluated (probably correctly) to be a future threat to the U.S. The magnitude of this perceived threat cannot be exactly surmised without knowing more, but one could postulate that a staunchly anti-american regime with a track record for aggression (remember Kuwait) could very well become an “exporter of terror”.
    As far as I am concerned, the war was strategically wise. Moralists can argue about the rectitude of a pre-emptive war, but as a realist, I say morality is a construct enforced purely by power. We are not as enlightened as we want to believe. The truth is, from Cain’s slaying of righteous Abel till the de-spiderholing of evil Saddam, right and wrong have been dictated by the most powerful coalition, which happens today to be the US. People have always acted in their best interests, as much as they can get away with. In an ideal(ist) World the US would have let its action be constrained by the UN, but we live in the real World. I wouldn’t advise any other nation to do the same thing, unless they have as much muscle to back it up (or allies with enough muscle).

  29. Doctor Slack Avatar
    Doctor Slack

    Humanitarian arguments for this war strike me as a tad disingenuous . . . if that was in itself a motivation for war, John Garang would be toppled in the Sudan
    Exactly.
    Saddam Hussein was evaluated (probably correctly) to be a future threat to the U.S.
    This was the argument that came closest, in fact, to convincing me about the war in the early days. But at this point, now that we know the WMD case to have been badly wrong (and probably falsified), I don’t think that logic holds. Moreover, the worst WMD threats are nowhere to be found in the “Axis of Evil”: Russia, Pakistan, and domestic terrorists seeking American weapons are all far scarier.
    Moralists can argue about the rectitude of a pre-emptive war, but as a realist, I say morality is a construct enforced purely by power.
    I see where you’re coming from, but to me a fully “realist” assessment of the war and its implications should also include American “soft power” — the influence and prestige the US enjoyed as the originator and guarantor of international law and organizations like the UN. The value of that kind of power has, I think, been disastrously underestimated in recent years by many parties, not just by Bush and the Republicans (although Iraq was the worst manifestation of that error).
    That’s why I can’t sign on to the “Bush doctrine” of pre-emption, either. Too destabilizing to a soft power that has liberated Americans to do lots of genuinely useful things far more than it has constrained them.

  30. Floyd McWilliams Avatar

    “Most researchers in the field did not believe the damage could be attributed to Hussein alone, and in fact contended that the sanctions in some ways reinforced the Baathists by making the population dependent on government infrastructure.”
    This sort of excuse-making for Saddam Hussein is as, um, unserious as one can get. Iraq under the Baath party was a socialist dictatorship; the whole damn country was “government infrastructure.”

  31. a.t.o. Avatar

    [I]”to me a fully “realist” assessment of the war and its implications should also include American “soft power” — the influence and prestige the US enjoyed as the originator and guarantor of international law and organizations like the UN.”[/I]
    Very true, D.S. Let me address that now. Definitely, American adherence to interntional protocol, and its perceived subjection to international law lent necessary credence to such institutions, as well as respect and prestige to America. U.S. involvement in the war serves to tarnish this facade of equality, uncloaking American power, and the true nature of the World Order (akin to Gandalf the Grey becoming Gandalf the White). This turn of events will reduce allegiance to international law from other nations, but such nations will still be loathe to act overtly against it, for fear of U.S. retaliation. In short, pure self-preservation has replaced idealism as the overt defender of international law.
    To those nations who are protesting the US’s actions on legal grounds, I ask why they are unwilling to enforce this “law”. Why not police the U.S., if this law is anything more than the opinion of the most powerful?

  32. Doctor Slack Avatar
    Doctor Slack

    This sort of excuse-making for Saddam Hussein
    Frivolous accusations like that are exactly the kind of bullshit I’m talking about.
    Iraq under the Baath party was a socialist dictatorship; the whole damn country was “government infrastructure.”
    Ignorance of the actual history of the country doesn’t help either. During the more than two decades of Saddam’s dictatorship, in only one period was the populace largely dependent for food on rations handed out by the Baath party. There’s government infrastructure and then there’s government infrastructure.

  33. Doctor Slack Avatar
    Doctor Slack

    This turn of events will reduce allegiance to international law from other nations
    Yep, esp in the case of Russia and most probably China. Alternatively it could tempt them to try to supplant the US as guarantors of international law, a tendency that I would argue has been impelled forwarded in Europe by recent events.
    but such nations will still be loathe to act overtly against it, for fear of U.S. retaliation.
    For now. There’s a distinct possibility that such nations may be powerfully motivated to ramp up their military efforts in order to counteract America’s asymmetrical advantage. Certainly that seems to be happening in Russia’s case. The dangers of that scenario are of course difficult to quantify or predict, but shouldn’t be underestimated.
    To those nations who are protesting the US’s actions on legal grounds, I ask why they are unwilling to enforce this “law”.
    Of course, law is mostly meaningless without the power to enforce it, and the selective enforcement of law is not lawful at all. No argument there.

  34. andy obuoforibo (a.t.o.) Avatar
    andy obuoforibo (a.t.o.)

    “Alternatively it could tempt them to try to supplant the US as guarantors of international law, a tendency that I would argue has been impelled forwarded in Europe by recent events.”
    “There’s a distinct possibility that such nations may be powerfully motivated to ramp up their military efforts in order to counteract America’s asymmetrical advantage.”
    Both valid points. However, such policy on the parts of other nations was happening/would have happened anyway, whether or not the US invaded Iraq. We see this in the continued pursuit of nuclear weapons by small countries, and the strengthening of economic and strategic alliances from the E.U. in Europe to ECOWAS in West Africa. Countries have, since the end of the Cold War, realised both their culnerability to aggression, and the U.S.’s mandate over international law, and have been seeking to redress both these problems. In fact some (myself included) would suggest this war was in part a signal to the lesser of these nations that their efforts towards a more equal footing will not be tolerated (typical power transition theory posture). In that sense, the U.S. govt probably believed the war would discourage them, and that belief seems to be partially correct (look at Ghaddafi).
    As for the larger rivals (Russia, China), you are very correct in saying their efforts will be accelerated.
    “The dangers of that scenario are of course difficult to quantify or predict, but shouldn’t be underestimated.”
    Very true. It remains to be seen if the gamble the admin took will yield the desired double-payoff of deterrence, and freedom for the US from international constraints. Perhaps a future democrat admin will backpedal, and unwittingly buy time for rival nations to carve up influence, while the US abides by its own rules. Or perhaps the next few admins (dem or rep) will keep on this track, and create/maintain a nation with transcendent foreign policy, and carte blanche to protect all its interests with minimal risk.

  35. Doctor Slack Avatar
    Doctor Slack

    A relevant link.