Draft Hillary

Draft Hillary
: It’s a bit crazy, I confess, but I’m beginning to sniff some political nostalgia from 1968 wafting into the air.

Back then, antiwar candidate Gene McCarthy stunned Lyndon Johnson, coming in a close second in New Hampshire. Suddenly, Johnson looked vulnerable — but so did McCarthy, if he actually became the party’s nominee. So, four days later, Bobby Kennedy entered the race, stopping McCarthy in his tracks and earning the eternal animosity of McCarthy and the temporary animosity (up until his assassination) of McCarthy’s populist, peacenik army of supporters (does that description start to sound familiar?). I was one of them.

Back then, the man to beat for Democrats was the incumbent Democrat.

Now, the man to beat for Democrats is the incumbent Republican. So there’s more at stake for them.

Tuesday, Al Gore is endorsing Howard Dean. This worries other Democrats. Hear, for example, Fred Wilson just now: “I just fear this is going to backfire badly in the general election.” With good reason.

Now if Bush keeps gaining (or regaining) strength, then the party will let Dean march into defeat. The worst thing that happens, they say now, is that he will be to the Democrats what Goldwater was to the Republicans — the over-the-top leader who forces the party to rethink its mission. Worse things could happen.

But if Bush looks at all vulnerable (cue Iraqi fireworks; assume temporary economic gains), then the Democrats aren’t going to want to follow Dean (and they’re not going to be inspired by the advice of Gore, who blew hiw own lead in the last race). So what do they do?

They need a Bobby Kennedy for the new age: the spoiler/savior.

That’s Hillary.

She won’t endear herself to the anti-war wing of the party (and don’t assume that’s a unanimous Democratic sentiment) but they’ll have to vote for her. (Besides, she is going after Bush on what matters: rebuilding Iraq.)

As Bobby tried to reclaim the Kennedy aura, so does Hillary help reclaim the closest thing to Camelot this generation of Democrats will ever know: the Clinton era.

She would be the first serious woman candidate for President.

She is hated by the Republicans — and that only helps capture the rebel spirit of the Deanites. The more the talk-show hosts scream about her, the more Democrats will be inspired to come out to support her.

She cares about health care, which remains a bigger issue than any candidate admits.

She’s the only alternative to Dean. If the stars align — if Dean gets too close for the comfort of the most powerful and pragmatic Democrats, if Bush stumbles or fate frowns upon him — then all she has to do is shove aside her placeholder, Clark. If the stars don’t align, she just keeps waiting.

But Hillary has been acting very much like a candidate lately, going to Afghanistan and Iraq and making the Sunday circuit last weekend.

Crazier things have happened. They happened, for example, in 1968.

7 responses to “Draft Hillary”

  1. Nick Avatar

    A few problems with this analysis:
    1. Hillary has said over and over again that she’s not going to run. Wanting her to won’t make it so.
    2. If Hillary did run, there’s a very good chance she’d be creamed, even if the stars were aligned in her favor. Her negatives, after all, are far higher than any other Democrat’s.
    3. Hillary’s *not* the only alternative to Dean. There’s Clark too. And, William Safire’s conspiracy theories aside, he’s not just a placeholder for the Clintons.
    4. Dean is much more electable than many people think. His governing record is moderate. His “liberal” stances are more rhetorical than substantive. And he’s already–before the primaries even begin–seeking to moderate his image across the country. According to the WaPo, he is a man obsessed with generating support in the South, with taking a hard line on defense, with appealing to minorities. Despite the media stereotype, he will not appear as a granola-and-latte liberal to the public.
    Check out my blogs for more thoughts on the presidential campaign, and especially the Gore endorsement of Dean: http://donnybrook.blogspot.com.

  2. Kathy Avatar

    You forgot George Wallace, who, bizarrely, picked up lots of RFK’s post-assasination support, or so I heard (maybe in Schlesinger’s RFK bio?)

  3. rivlax Avatar

    I was one of those P.O.’d McCarthyites in 1968. I came home on leave from Thule, Greenland, on March 31, 1968, the day LBJ said he wasn’t going to run. I worked in the Women for McCarthy headquarters in Washington for a week, all while the city was burning after MLK was killed on April 4. I hated RFK for jumping in, but, in retrospect, I thank God that McCarthy didn’t get the nod. I was 20 years old back then. What did I know? Now I’m part of the vast right-wing conspiracy. Funny how things change.

  4. billg Avatar

    Senator Clinton has pushed the “I’m Not Running” button so often that she seems to have crossed the Rubicon regarding a normal entry into the race.
    But, an abnormal entry is possible if it provides cover and absolution for violating all those vows to stay out.
    Imagine: During, or after, the primary season, Dean maintains a lead in the delegate count, but it’s not sufficient for a first-ballot nomination. Several candidates have rub out of money and stopped campaigning, but have not withdrawn. Animosities with the Dean camp run high, and those candidates have neither endorsed Dean nor released their delegates. Meanwhile, polls show Dean losing handily to Bush, while other polls show Clinton running neck-and-neck with him. At some point, one of the “retired” candidates declares that he would release his delegates to support Clinton if she became a candidate. Soon, a delegation makes a pilgrimmage to her council chambers. Hillary emerges to declare her candidacy.

  5. br Avatar

    Although Hillary has steadfastly denied that she would seek or accept the presidential nomination, she has not explicitly ruled out a nod as the VP candidate. She and Clark {“the two stars fo the Democratic party”) could run an effective North/South campaign. Also, if people became inured to her as VP, they could more easily make the next logical step to voting her into the top job.

  6. Frank Hood Avatar
    Frank Hood

    Report from the past. In 1968 neither McCarthy nor Bobby K. had a chance to get the nomination. LBJ, the master of patronage politics, had locked up the nomination for Humphrey before the sound-check died on his I’m not running announcement. The vast majority of delegates were not selected by primaries then, and Bobby’s moment of triumph (and death) in winning California was a draw at best as he lost Oregon (or maybe Washington or maybe both–it was a long time ago) the same day. McCarthy’s only hope was to win all the primaries after losing New Hampshire (yes, he lost New Hampshire) and hope to steamroller the convention with a you-can’t-ignore-the-people’s-choice strategy. Do you really think the hard-core Eugenie Babies would have warmed up to Bobby after he ruined the whole Don Quixote impossible dream they’d come to believe? Do you really think the hard-core Deanie Babies will warm up to Hillary after she ruins the whole Don Quixote impossible dream they’ve come to believe?
    The real lesson is that some of the Eugenie Babies went on to change the whole nominating process for the next time, so that George McGovern locked up the nomination against all the left-at-the-station, smoke-filled-room guys who never knew what hit them.

  7. br Avatar

    Just minutes after my earlier post on Clark choosing Hillary as his VP look what hit the AP wire….
    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20031209/ap_on_el_pr/clark_clinton_1
    …is someone from the Clark campaign reading my thoughts (or maybe just this blog.)