The scarcity killer

One of the slides in my PowerPoint BlogBoy dance calls the internet a scarcity killler and contemplates what that means for media: when advertisers can always find somewhere else to advertise and when access to scarce airtime and presstime is no longer valued.

It doesn’t kill commerce but it changes the rules and the value. So, for example, the scarce commodity might not be paper but may be trust. And so those who establish trust gain value in the future.

At Always On, George Gilder went on a nice, hyperbolic riff on scarcity:

“TV is dying fast and it will be followed by Hollywood. These industries fed on scarcity. There are only a few channels available. TV was technology of tyrants. It fed this advertising model that has collapsed,” Gilder told an audience at the conference. “The thirty-second spot is just going to die. Nobody is going to watch any ads they don’t want to see.

“Book culture and blog culture can redeem a civilization,” he said.

The scarcity killer

The scarcity killer

: One of the slides in my PowerPoint BlogBoy dance calls the internet a scarcity killler and contemplates what that means for media: when advertisers can always find somewhere else to advertise and when access to scarce airtime and presstime is no longer valued.

It doesn’t kill commerce but it changes the rules and the value. So, for example, the scarce commodity might not be paper but may be trust. And so those who establish trust gain value in the future.

At Always On, George Gilder went on a nice, hyperbolic riff on scarcity:

“TV is dying fast and it will be followed by Hollywood. These industries fed on scarcity. There are only a few channels available. TV was technology of tyrants. It fed this advertising model that has collapsed,” Gilder told an audience at the conference. “The thirty-second spot is just going to die. Nobody is going to watch any ads they don’t want to see.

“Book culture and blog culture can redeem a civilization,” he said.

  • http://www.blogads.com/weblog henrycopeland

    Hmm. I recall some idiot saying much the same thing in May, 2002: “Suddenly, Vivendi, AOL-Time Warner, EMAP and Newscorp are factories whose economies of scale are swamped by infinity, networks that have come unplugged, refrigerator salesmen trudging into the next ice age. … The old economics of media ñ he who controls distribution wins the most readers and serves advertisers best ñ will be plowed under by a new economics ñ she who relates best attracts the most valuable audience.” http://www.pressflex.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/54/Blogonomics:_making_a_living_from_blogging.html

  • Duneview

    Time is the only scarce commodity – and ALL advertising vehicles are subjected to it, whether you are a tv network, a newspaper or indeed, a blog. Everyone is fighting for share of the clock, and compelling content is the only “value” in that world.

  • http://www.keshertalk.com/ Yehudit

    ditto Dunview. I was going to say “attention” will always be the scarcest, most irriducible commodity, ay least until we all have implants which help our brains process info faster.

  • http://www.chineseadventure.com/blog/ Mr. Lee

    I guess I’m the odd man out thus far. Far from hyperbole, I think Gilder is essentially correct. Now, if he had said these things would happen in 5 years, then yes, that would be hyperbole.
    The barrier to entry for television and movies is dropping each and every day. Inexpensive HD cameras, affordable video editors, more intuitive and powerful FX/graphics programs. All of these are on here, with more and better on the way.
    In regards to the coming death of :30 commercials; can anyone with a DVR (ie Tivo) dispute this? When is the last time you watched a commercial you didn’t have to.
    I admit I’ve watched a few very clever ones, on the Internet.
    Money can always purchase the best talent. So in this way tv/movies will never become completely decentralized as large companies can co-opt the best and brightest. In this way you could say that TV and Hollywood will never die.
    But, without hyperbole sure you can admit that tv/movies as we know it are becoming something that we could only dream of 30 years ago.
    How long before NBC, CBS and ABC are no longer in the top 5. . .or 20? At least one of them will go down and not that long into the future as they are supplanted by the onrushing hordes of cable.