Iranian Christmas

Iranian Christmas
: David Warren has visions of sugarplums dancing in his head at the thought of the mullahs’ collapse:

…when the world’s first, most successful, and longest-lived, “Islamist” totalitarian regime finally dies, the prestige of Islamic political fanaticism everywhere will be catastrophically undermined….

If the ayatollahs fall, the international Hezbollah terrorist network will be orphaned; the Syrian Baathist dictatorship will lose its main foreign ally and prop; the North Koreans will lose their principal weapons market; the nuisance of Iranian subversion will be removed from Iraq and Afghanistan; the last serious Russian influence in the region will evaporate; France will lose its chief remaining means to sow mischief against U.S. interests; and the U.S. will lose its only credible rival as a military presence in the Gulf.

It is moreover just possible that the world oil market will go into long-term glut, from the collapse of political obstacles to free trade. This would have various economic implications, debatable environmental ones, but two indisputable strategic effects: the permanent elimination of Saudi Arabia’s oil weapon, and the gradual removal of the oil crutch upon which the region’s economies lean. The very need for productive enterprise, to feed swelling young populations, will force free-market reforms that will change the nature of Arab society.

And this is before calculating the power of example, if Iran — flanked, Allah willing, by other successes in Iraq and Afghanistan — can establish a secular democratic constitution. The desire for it is overwhelming, and after the fall of first the Shah, and then the mad mullahs, Iran may have exhausted the alternatives. The prospects for a democratic constitutional order are better in Iran than in any Arab country, from the Iranians’ willingness to do it themselves. They do not require a foreign liberator.

Mouth-watering, eh?

  • Mike G

    And to think that all this is because of the blundering, insensitive foreign policy of a total imbecile!
    Not the first time I’ve quoted Casablanca to Bush-bashers: “Don’t underestimate American blundering. I was with them when they blundered into Berlin.”

  • http://doggerelpundit.blogspot.com Stephen

    …or Pacino in Devil’s Advocate
    “…Look at me! Underestimated from day one! They never see me comin’…”
    Vanity–definitely my favorite sin.

  • Nima

    Well, I see a big amount exageration mixed with some nationalistic sentiments in this piece of writing. But I loved the last sentence: “They (the Iranians) don’t need a foreign liberator.”

  • Pete Stanley

    Yeah, you gotta watch out for those nationalist Canadians who grew up in Pakistan.

  • PD

    The first knot in the hammock came undone, solely due to the will and power of the US and Geo43, in Afghanistan… Then followed Iraq’s amazing missteps – and once again Geo43 stepped up and made the hard decisions… The rest of the M.E. knots will now unravel in turn. I’m sure Geo43 will nudge them along where needed, but have no doubt that it will happen.
    If the very unhappy people of Iran want to jump the queue, hey that’s certainly fine by me!
    But make no mistake, Nima – and any others blinded by their nationalistic pride (including me), the Iranians feel the support of regular Americans and the US Gov’t for their cause, and have moved at this time not totally by coincidence. This is an obviously fortuitous conjunction in time – and bodes well for both the Iranian people and the West as it will provide an accelerant to the process.
    I am grateful for the immeasurable stupidity of the Taleban and Saddam – and the unexpected (by me) growth of Geo43 to fill the shoes created by 9/11. He was my Gov in Texas – and there was a LOT of room for improvement. But credit where due always – he did it, and he did it right. I am now, unlike the Blixie Chicks, VERY proud of him – as a Texan and as my Prez.
    No event stands alone, isolated. It all weaves together to create extraordinary circumstances and opportunities – but those in authority must be disposed and advised to not only see them, but to act. Fortunate, indeed, is America for the current administration to be in place at this time. And the Iranians are welcome to share in that fortune – I look forward to seeing them free themselves from the 2nd-most brutal, backward, and barbaric group to masquerade as a gov’t in my lifetime. Sorry, but the Taleban were worse.
    History will certainly link the rise of the gallant and brave Iranians to depose the Black Hats to the admin of Geo43 and his will to commit to making changes in Afghanistan and Iraq.
    As it should.

  • Paul Gaddis

    Man, I hope your right. It would be SO cool to see an Islamic democracy in Iran. I guess the real trick to how to support them without looking like we are supporting them. If it looks like the US is behind this it will lose all credibitly. The prospect is so exciting that i fear we may overplay our hand here when we should just sit back and be very patient . Clinton could not have done it. W just might.

  • Mike G

    It would be even cooler to see a non-Islamic democracy, don’t you think?

  • Advanced Calculus

    You’re as likely to see a non-Islamic democracy in Iran as you would a non-Catholic democracy in Italy!

  • http://canoe.blogspot.com Ikram Saeed

    Did David Warren ever abck down from calling Salam Pax a Ba’athist? Or does being a pundit mean never having to apoligize or correct yourself?
    (Warren is my hometown columnist — alas!)

  • http://Canoe.blogspot.com Ikram Saeed

    Pete — I’m not sure is Warren counts as a nationaist Canadian. Warren’s is the last of the men who “bore the white man’s burden”. He ultimately emigrated to Canada, liek many post-imperial Britons.
    I see him in the mold of David Frum or Niall Ferguson — a non-American who wants the US to not just be an Empire, but be a Anglospheric/western empire so that nonAmericans can join in the fun too!
    Anyway, I haven’t seen any Canadian nationalist writing from Warren. But I could be wrong (and would love to see some).

  • Mike G

    “You’re as likely to see a non-Islamic democracy in Iran as you would a non-Catholic democracy in Italy!”
    Okay, I’ll settle for Islam being dislodged as the official religion and the Ayatollah having his states confiscated and having his powered confined to a tiny “independent” country within the boundaries of Tehran.
    In 1861.
    Followed by Mussolini cutting off his water.
    Seriously, I think we’re talking two different things here. I’m pretty sure Italy is not officially a Catholic state any more. Officially it’s still a Catholic, comma, democracy, though the actual Catholicism of any Western European country is a matter of considerable debate.
    By that standard, I’d like to and expect to see Iran as an Islamic, comma, democracy, but not an Islamic state that happens to be a democracy.

  • Mike G

    Whoops, even I can’t keep my argument straight. Unofficially I would agree Italy is a (nominally, fairly lapsed) Catholic, comma democracy. But not officially at all.

  • John Anderson

    Mike G>, I think you are hoping for something like Turkey – Islamic but not Islamist, ie, church and state seperated. Without the Supreme/Executive Council, that is almost what Iran would be: a few too many clerics in the elected side of the government right now, but if the hard-liners at the top are kicked out that may change, too.
    At the moment, obe big problem is that the Supreme Council has its own army, based around Teheran, and does not allow other Army forces in (Hmm, Rome did something like that too, even pre-Empire). If those troops have to be moved, either to the borders or to quell riots in-country…